‘Best Convention Ever,’ 45 years running!

Back row, left to right: Dave Renbarger, John Renbarger, Ryan Renbarger, Jason Renbarger, Mike Renbarger. Front row: Jamin Rader, Steve Hart, George Scienski, Gary Kicinski. Photo by Lynn Renbarger.

This year’s rendition of Best Convention Ever had a unique spin to it, as it seemed everyone walked away happy with the outcome of their draft.

Clearly some teams were drafting for the here-and-now and some were looking longer term, but somehow everyone seemed content with their haul.

The 15-round draft to kick off the 45th season of the I-75 League saw nine managers in attendance in Phoenix and six more drafting remotely, and the draft came off without a hitch once we figured out where Google moved the chat function to on Google Sheets.

The main table at the Strat draft

Ryan (left) and John Renbarger brought a portable table and dueling electronic devices.

George Scienski ordered ahead but still lost out on Nolan Jones; the OmegaWatts settled for Marcell Ozuna.

Commish Dave Renbarger’s setup included laptop, ranking sheets and physical cards.

View from our seats for Mariners-Brewers on March 9.

View from our not-enough-legroom seats at Rangers-Angels on March 11.

Jet’s Pizza provided some mid-draft nourishment for onsite managers. Plenty of spring training action entertained the gang before and after the draft, with most of the managers taking in Mariners-Brewers on Saturday and Rangers-Angels on Monday.

We (me) lost a key to the Strat house and had to overcome an encounter with a tire slasher, but those were the worst of the tragedies. Nobody gagged on drafting enough at-bats or innings, nobody tried to draft someone who was already taken.

Jamin Rader made his first convention appearance and George Scienski made his second, joining a veteran crew of convention regulars: Dave Renbarger, Gary Kicinski, Mike Renbarger, Steve Hart, and John/Jason/Ryan Renbarger. Former manager Ken Kuzdak and Lynn Renbarger were also on hand.

No one had any clue what the Bismarck Bombers were going to do with the first pick, but they managed to take the guy the Carpe Diem OmegaWatts were planning to take with the second pick — Rockies star Nolan Jones. The OmegaWatts drowned their sorrows by adding yet another 40-homer hitter to their beastly lineup in Marcell Ozuna.

With picks at 3 and 5, Applegate went after the highest-ceiling pitcher and highest-ceiling hitter in the land, Eury Perez and infielder Elly De La Cruz. It took less than a week for Perez to get injured and De La Cruz likely won’t be far behind. With the sandwich pick at 4, after apparently lusting after Perez, West Atlanta settled for Dodgers ace Bobby Miller.

Bushwood was next up at 6 and 8, and it landed top-of-the-round prospect quality in picks Royce Lewis (6) and Evan Carter (8). Between those selections, Boulder snagged Reds middle infielder Matt McLain to handle the bulk of the second-base load.

Catcher Yainer Diaz fell all the way to Superior at No. 9, and South Grand Prairie began its run of prospects by taking Grayson Rodriguez at No. 10.

Starting pitchers also went at 11 and 13, with Dyersville claiming Tanner Bibee and Margaritaville happily landing Kodai Senga. At 12, Olympic Coast added some right-handed thunder with first baseman Wilmer Flores.

The New New York Hypnotoads finished off the first round by filling their second-base void with Zack Gelof at 14 and bolstering their backstop ranks with highly touted catcher Francisco Alvarez at 15.

Still that left many top-quality players for the second and third round too, and suddenly what was billed in advance as a potentially “weak” draft didn’t seem so bad afterall. Some other draft highlights:

• Bismarck tabbed four Tigers among its first seven picks (Tyler Holton, Alex Lange, Jake Rogers and Parker Meadows.)
• If he’d been available a year ago, Jordan Walker might have gone high in the first round; a ‘5’ fielding rating must have scared people away this year and Applegate landed him in the second round at pick 21. Noelvi Marte‘s stock rightfully dropped following news of his half-season suspension, but the Paperclips think he’s a bargain as a fifth-round pick at 72.
• The wheeling-and-dealing Hypnotoads traded away their second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-round draft picks and made several in-draft maneuvers to position themselves to snag a desired player. Their success this year might hinge on the effectiveness of their “I’ll get starters at the end” strategy, as Andrew Abbott, Tanner Houck and James Paxton were taken in three of the last four rounds, barely dragging New New York across the 1,500-inning finish line at 1,501.
• South Grand Prairie loaded up on young arms, following up its GrayRod selection with Taj Bradley, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo and J.P. France.
• Dyersville and Tatooine were also active traders; the Treblemakers swapped six of their original picks and the Rebels five; Tatooine’s maneuvers included their first, and fourth-through-seventh-round picks. The Rebels’ strategy was to deal picks for players prior to the draft rather than pick up sloppy seconds while drafting at the back of each round.
• In the 12th round, Savannah nabbed Super Freak Dairon Blanco, who already put his pinch-running abilities into practice by swiping a base and scoring the tying run in the Scorpions’ come-from-behind win in Game Five of their season-opening series with Applegate. Yow.
• Mr. Irrelevant honors went to Kyle Farmer, a seven-position player whom the Bombers reclaimed after opting not to retain him at the end of the 2023 season.

And with that, for the 45th time in league history, it’s time to play ball!

One week away from a ‘weak’ draft?

Is it a weak draft this year? Is the stockpile of available talent significantly below what we’ve seen in other years?

As we sit here one week away from the draft to kick off the 45th season of the I-75 League, we can’t help but compare this year’s field of availables to last year’s, when it seemed there were plenty of two-way players who were stalwarts on offense and defense, and there were some dynamic pitching cards available too.

I mean, Gunnar Henderson was chosen with the 10th pick! Corbin Carroll with the 11th!

Last year’s first round also included Adley Rutschman, Michael Harris, Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan and Christian Walker. All five of those guys were 1-rated fielders. Julio Rodriguez, Henderson and Carroll weren’t too shabby either.

How many 1-rated fielders do you think will go in the first round this year?

The most likely answer to that question is: None.

And how about the pitching? While most teams retained a full lineup or maybe have one or two positions to fill, a lot of clubs still need a starter or two and a big chunk of a bullpen. There’s a bunch of guys with about 30 innings of eligibility who have good cards, but who can afford more than one or two of them when you have to draft 1500 innings of eligibility?

We’re not asking for much, just give us a guy with a balanced card who doesn’t give up a lot of homers or lets people run crazy on him.

You can pretty much count those kinds of pitchers who are available on two hands. Expect the run on pitchers to come fast and furious with the offensive star power and prospect glamour fairly tame, as the pitching depth turns mediocre very quickly.

Be happy you’re not in the shoes of Dyersville or New New York. While both feature nice offenses, those clubs currently have only five eligible pitchers (they each retained a sixth pitcher who has no card). The Hypnotoads have to draft 892 innings to get to 1500; the Treblemakers 930! They will probably have to spend 12 or 13 of their 15 picks on pitchers. And commit early draft picks to the likes of high-innings retreads Kyle Gibson (192 and bad) and Lance Lynn (184 and horrible) just to have a shot at being constitutional.

Justin Verlander is aging and went in the first round last year, but he had a card that merited such a selection — 175 innings, arguably best card in the set, draftable or retained.

Last year another one of the top pitching cards belonged to a draftable player in Spencer Strider, who went third overall.

This year the handful of pitchers who are either a) good, with innings or b) consensus top prospects is thin, they will be gobbled up quickly, and by the second round already we’ll be picking over the ruins of guys who either get torched on one side or the other, have low innings availability or sport the dreaded +9 hold factor.

With these fairly obvious drawbacks to this year’s pool, it’s surprising there haven’t been more pre-draft trades. But there’s often a final-week and draft-eve flurry of deals as reality sets in and the sea begins to part separating the haves from the have-greater-hope-for-next-years.

It also puts a greater emphasis on drafting strategy, preparation and prospecting. And that in and of itself can still make drafts an exciting time, regardless of the depth of the talent pool.

So, let’s draft!

Six guys whose draft stock might be falling

Mock drafts in which folks are drafting for other teams are all fine and good, but when it’s your player you’re drafting for your team, for real, your considerations might be more risk-averse. This can result in players’ stock plummeting — or, another way of looking at it, good players becoming bargain picks if acquired later than expected.

As we hit the two-week mark before the draft to kick off the 45th season of the I-75 League, here’s a look at some players whose stock might be falling.

Kodai Senga, SP, Mets — Arguably the best right-handed starter available, with 166 innings, a 6 for his endurance inning, high strikeout counts both ways, low batting average card both ways. But: He’s starting the season on the IL, with a shoulder injury no less, and he’s 31 years old. Potentially narrows his list of suitors to teams “going for it” this year without consideration of his long-term value.

Marcell Ozuna, OF/DH, Braves — The only player in the draft who hit 40 homers last year, Ozuna offers power both ways and the ability to play full-time with 530 at-bats. But he’s a 5(+4)e4 in the outfield, so unless you have a DH vacancy or an X-chart death wish, he may not be a great fit for your team. And his value will diminish depending on your ballpark. He’s also already 33, but he is part of a monster-laden Braves lineup, and as long as he stays on the right side of the law, could continue to be productive for a couple more years. But you just never know with Ozuna.

Noelvi Marte, 3B, Reds — OK, different scenario. Not a “going for it” pick like Senga or Ozuna, Marte’s challenge is an overcrowded Reds infield. The team is already packed with hot young stars who made their debut last year, many of them playing multiple positions (Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Will Benson, Christian Encarnacion-Strand). Marte, a top-30 prospect by just about every rating service, clocked 114 at-bats and impressed with a card that offers an OBP north of .400 each way. He looks to be the third baseman of the future, but the Reds signed veteran corner infielder Jeimer Candelario this winter as well — to a three-year, $45 million contract. There’s only 26 spots on the roster, so the Reds won’t be paying Candelario to sit on the bench. Book it: On the eve of Opening Day the Reds will be announcing that Marte (or possibly CES) will start the season in the minors, “so he can get regular playing time.”

Francisco Alvarez, C, Mets — A lot of teams need help at catcher. Some (Superior, Carpe Diem, South Grand Prairie) have complete voids there. But if you don’t get Yainer Diaz and his big bat against righties and minus-2 arm, are you investing a high pick in Alvarez, with his sub-.200 average each-way, and +1 throwing arm card, despite his revered top-5 prospect list status among many services? Immense potential to fall to the second round; equally likely potential to be looked back at in a few years as the bargain of the 2024 draft.

Nolan Jones, 1B/3B/OF, Rockies — Jones was a pretty middling prospect with the Guardians who had up-and-down seasons in the minors before he was dealt to the Rockies for Juan Brito. The Guardians are probably regretting that move after Jones’ 20-homer, 20-stolen base, .931 OPS 2023 season that gives him one of the best offensive cards in the draft. But will he come back down to earth or is he a future batting champion in Colorado? If you’re looking at him as a “going for it” guy, where does he play? The minus-5 arm is great in the outfield but it comes with a 4 fielding rating. He’s already 25 as he’s bursting onto the scene. There weren’t any ‘4’ fielders drafted in our first round last year. He’s only a 3 at first base (a 4 at 3B), but he’s ticketed for LF this year. The offensive numbers are so great with a healthy 367 ABs that somebody will likely bite the bullet on him early. It just might not as early as one might think with that great of an offensive card.

Esteury Ruiz, OF, A’s — In MLB’s new era emphasizing speed, you’d think the game’s stolen base leader (67) would be an attractive high pick. But many teams will conclude that to eat up a precious roster spot you have to bring something more to the table than basestealing. Ruiz’s offense is nothing to write home about, and he’s a 4(0)e11 in center field. He has a 75% chance of getting a good lead and (20,16) numbers, which is very, very good, but not Super Freak good. Projections have him stealing more like 50 bases this year, so it’s not like experts expect him to leap up to 80. Thus his modest future value dampens the likelihood of him going in any round before the pizza break.

What happened to the 2022 first-round picks?

By Jamin Rader

Jamin Rader

I joined the I-75 League in 2021, and participated in my first draft in 2022. It was a nerve-racking experience — it felt like every pick was boom or bust for my new team. I took a look back at that first round to reminisce and came away with a surprising question: what happened to the 2022 first-round picks? While many of the first-rounders were difference-makers in 2022 and 2023, almost none of them will be major contributors in 2024.

Here are the numbers: Of the 15 players taken in the first round of 2022, only six (picks 1-5, 12) are currently rostered. Only Kyle Gibson has a card with a full* season of usage (192 IP) in the upcoming draft. Only two players (Wander Franco and Brandon Marsh) have genuinely good cards going into 2024, but of these two, only Marsh has a clear future in the MLB.

So what happened? Let’s dive deeper.

No. 1: Wander Franco

Drafted by: Superior

“I Wander if he’ll ever play again” — Manager Mike Renbarger, probably. If it wasn’t for Shohei Ohtani’s massive deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the investigation into Franco’s relations with a minor might have been the biggest story of the offseason. Franco sports a fantastic card, especially against left-handed pitching, and a gleaming 1e14 at shortstop, but it may well be his last.

No. 2: Tyler O’Neill 

Drafted by: Bismarck

O’Neill put up .292/.366/.557 with 35 bombs for the Bombers in 2022, but he has yet to live up to his second-overall hype since. He’s headed to Boston this season. Maybe the change of scenery will get him back on track. Maybe he’ll stay off the IL. He’s just too talented to give up on… maybe.

No. 3: Alek Manoah

Drafted by: Olympic Coast

What happened here? Manoah delivered consecutive sub-3.00 ERA seasons in ’22 and ’23 while going 22-11 for the Orcas. Manoah quickly turned into Manure in an upside-down season that renders his 2024 card useless. He was retained by the Orcas, however, in hopes that he will return to his Cy Young-finalist form.

No. 4: Jonathan India

Drafted by: Boulder

The 2021 Rookie of the Year put up a glimmering .353 OBP for Boulder in 2022 and has been MLB-average ever since. MLB-average play doesn’t win games in this 15-team league. India, like O’Neill and Manoah, is still young and may yet re-emerge into a cornerstone for Boulder’s lineup. But in 2024? He doesn’t have much more to offer than a just-OK bat and an unreliable glove.

No. 5: Jarred Kelenic

Drafted by: Margaritaville

Kelenic was traded to Applegate last season, directly before he suffered a self-inflicted foot injury, furthering Applegate’s rebuilding woes. The top prospect has yet to live up to his fifth-round pick potential, but he is still just 24. He will have a change of scenery in Atlanta. Will he finally break out? Or will he get ‘clipped before the season’s end?

No. 6: Mitch Haniger

Drafted by: West Atlanta

Unlike the first five players on this list, Haniger will be available in the 2024 draft! Haniger mashed 29 home runs for West Atlanta in 2022, and has yet to play even half a season in the MLB since. Crush’d by injuries, Haniger was released by West Atlanta at the end of the 2022 season and hasn’t seen I-75 action since.

No. 7: Carlos Rodon

Drafted by: Savannah

Rodon was unstoppable in 2022 and 2023, going 25-14 with a 3.31 ERA in that span. Rodon won the Pittman Cup with the Tatooine Rebels in 2023. Instead of a handshake and a “thanks,” the Rebels gave Rodon the axe. Add Rodon to your empire for cheap in the upcoming draft. 

No. 8: Ranger Suarez

Drafted by: Dyersville

Suarez was unstoppable in 2022. 22 wins? Not a problem. A 2.51 ERA? Of course. 67 relief appearances? You know it. But unfortunately for Suarez, he’s a lefty, and only the most dominant and consistent lefty pitchers can make it in the I-75 League. Suarez was released by Dyersville after the 2023 season. 

No. 9: Nicky Lopez 

Drafted by: Applegate

Nicky Lopez had one thing the rest of the 2022 draftees didn’t. A platinum glove and a solid bat. He was pivotal up the middle in Applegate’s 2022 playoff season (.989 fielding percentage), but his card has been unusable since. If you’re looking for a glove-first option at 2B in the upcoming draft, look further than Lopez.

No. 10: Akil Baddoo

Drafted by: Margaritaville

Where is he now?

After a strong 2022 season with Margaritaville and West Atlanta, Baddoo do bad. Given his inability to hit lefty pitching, he needs to be part of a platoon. Unfortunately, he’s apparently forgotten how to hit righties too. 

No. 11: Anthony Desclafani

Drafted by: Destin (now Carpe Diem)

Here is list of all Desclafani’s injuries since the 2022 draft: Ankle (4/22/22), Ankle (7/1/22), Toe (5/13/23), Shoulder (7/2/23), Elbow (7/27/23). Desclafani delivered a 4.08 ERA for Destin, then was cut. From Beach Bum to beach bum, Desclafani remains unrostered. There still remains an outside chance he plays with an I-75 club in 2024. 

No. 12: Brandon Marsh

Drafted by: South Grand Prairie

A prospect-y pick in 2022, Marsh finally broke out in the 2023 MLB season. The Warriors have waited patiently and now get so see his elite defense and strong card versus righties play in tandem.

No. 13: Robbie Ray

Drafted by: Greendale

Robbie, the third of four lefty pitchers taken in the first round of the 2022 draft, met a similar fate. A mediocre 4.32 ERA in 2022 was followed by a mediocre 4.48 ERA in 2023. Injuries led to his final demise, and he was cut from the Zealots’ roster last December.

No. 14: Trevor Rogers

Drafted by: New New York

Rogers looked like a great young prospect in 2022. He hasn’t been good, or healthy, since. He’s unrostered, but he’s in good company. 2022 draftees Tyler (40th overall), Jake (110th), and Taylor (124th) Rogers are also on the hunt for a job in the I-75 League.

No. 15: Kyle Gibson

Drafted by: Tatooine

You have to give credit to Gibson. Unlike the rest of the players picked in the first round of the 2022 draft, Gibson actually played a full season in 2023 (192 IP). Looking for some filler innings? Find Gibson in the mid-to-late rounds of the 2024 draft.

If you want to revisit what we were thinking at the time, here’s our 2022 draft preview and recap.

*Full season is defined as 3 ABs/game, or 1 IP/game.

Gimme all the Super Freaks. All of ’em.

Last season was emotionally demoralizing for the Clips, knowing their noncompetitive team was playing for “next year” and only winning 74 games. Now “next year” is here and the prospects for the playoffs look even worse.

If we’re not gonna win games we gotta find some way to keep it fun, so we’re here to unveil, as a public service, our complete drafting strategy as we head into our March 10th retention draft to kick off the 45th season of the I-75 League.

So we’re going after the quirky cards, the unusual cards, the unique cards, the freaky cards. Cue Rick James. Presenting the Applegate Super Freaks, who this year will never let our spirits down.

First round: OF Evan Carter. Yes he’s a beast against righties, but a chance to own this historic card against lefties cannot be passed up. This guy’s card tilts so far to the right I’ll be surprised if it aligns horizontally on the screen. Besides the .000 average against lefties, Carter’s card sports an unheard-of 84 strikeouts against lefties, if the Strat rankings are to be believed. That’s a card you don’t take home to mother. He also has 10 walk chances and 11 gb(a) chances, with no ballpark single chances, so that’s 105 of the 108 chances on a hitter’s card. We can practically predict his card right here: 3 column, all strikeouts. 2 column, all strikeouts. 1 column, walks at 1-5, 1-6 and 1-12. Groundball (a) at 1-7 and 1-8. Lineout at 1-10. Rest strikeouts.

First round, second pick: 1B/3B/OF Nolan Jones. This guy is apparently the second coming of Roberto Clemente with a minus-5 arm, yet somehow is paired with a 4 fielding rating. I guess he lets balls fall in for a double and then throws them out trying to stretch it to a triple? Do you play him for his arm or DH him for his lack of athletic ability in the field? We have the perfect solution. We’ll play Jones at first base, where he’s a better fielder than Joey Meneses, then when a runner is trying to go first to third, or score from second, or tag up, while the play’s in progress we’ll make a defensive substitution to get Jones’ howitzer into position to throw out the runner. This is a little-known legal maneuver in 48 of the 50 states. How’d we get a second pick in the first round, you ask? We will trade Aaron Judge and his inadequate minus-4 arm to gain a pick to snag Jones.

Second round: OF Nelson Velazquez. Who? Velazquez fills our all-important seventh outfielder spot on the club thanks to super freaky righty-on-righty power numbers along with 162 at-bats. How freaky? Well, he has 15.6 pure homer chances against righties plus the maximum 8 diamond chances. Split the difference on those ballpark chances and that’s 19.6 homer chances against righties. For perspective, that’s 47% more than Aaron Judge, who has 13.3. On occasion you’ll see this kind of power against lefties but rarely against righties, especially from a righty. I’m snagging him before the Coors Field Volcanoes, now in our division, do, where on sunny days Velazquez might have up to 23 homer chances.

Third round: OF Jorge Soler. Now that we have all these studs against righties I’m a little concerned about teams throwing lefties at us. Soler is the perfect defense against that, with the same 19.6 homer chances against lefties that Velazquez offers against righties. He becomes our eighth outfielder, but I’m snagging him before the Coors Field Volcanoes, now in our division, do, where on sunny days Soler might have up to 23 homer chances.

Fourth round: One of those Blue Jays infielders. I’m sort of set up the middle with Xander Bogaerts and Bryson Stott, but the constitution requires two guys at every position, so this round I’m eyeballing either Ernie Clement or Davis Schneider. Clement’s card is beyond super freaky; no strikeouts or walks on either side. Hits .545 against righties, .466 against lefties. I’m leaning toward Schneider though, because of more at-bats (116 vs. 50), and a .586 OBA vs. lefties with 15.5 homer chances. Plus, he can fill in as our ninth outfielder in a pinch.

Fifth round: LHP Andrew Saalfreak: No way I’m passing up the chance to draft a guy named Saalfreak for the Applegate Super Freaks. To begin with, he got a card even though he only pitched 10 innings. For another, he’s a lefty with a .000 batting-average-against card vs. lefties, with just 6 walk chances. He’s the perfect guy to bring in against Greendale when Juan Soto strides to the plate with two outs and the bases loaded in the third inning. Don’t want to pinch-hit for Soto this early in the game, do ya Greendale??? “Here’s the pitch… and Saalfreak gets Soto to ground meekly to second base. So that gets Applegate out of the jam, and we go to the top of the fourth, and the score remains, Greendale 10, Applegate 2.” I can do this 30 times over the course of the season, keeping me in games and making this draft pick well worth the investment. P.S. I’m presuming by the fourth round that other nearly-blank freak cards such as righties Shelby Miller and Jeff Hoffman and lefties Tyler Holton and JoJo Romero will already be gone. P.P.S. This just in, it’s Saalfrank, not Saalfreak. No matter.

Sixth round: C Martin Maldonado. Back in the day, when speedsters ruled the top of the order, “A-B” guys were the choice du jour for a two-hole hitter. This meant an A bunter and a B hit-and-run guy. On the off-chance that your speedster failed to get a lead, you could burn the defense with an easy sacrifice bunt (often for a hit), or a hit-and-run play that often resulted in runners at first and third. Sadly this lost art of bat control has given way to Kyle Schwarbers batting leadoff and teams’ best hitters batting second, guys whom you don’t want giving themselves up. But 37-year-old Maldonado with his 1-8 speed is bringing that lost art back. Out of the 523 hitters retained and eligible to be drafted this year, there’s only one who is an “A-B” player. His name is Martin Maldonado. Maldonado was cut by the Clips so there’s a potential holdout situation brewing but we’re confident we can get him to report to camp eventually. And after a dozen game-winning squeeze bunt RBIs, we predict that some wise guy next November will propose a rule that says you can’t bring your backup catcher off the bench to pinch-hit and lay down a squeeze bunt.

Seventh round: OF Dairon Blanco. In 1982, Tim Raines stole 195 bases for the Paperclips, a record that stands to this day. We’re drafting Blanco to challenge that mark. And serve as a 10th outfielder. How’s he gonna do it? He’s a star stealer with 2-11 chances for a good lead. (That’s 97.2%). He has a 20 for his first number. On those 2.8% of occasions he fails to get a lead, he has a 16 for his second number. This is also the number he’s starting with to steal third. So unless you’ve got a pitcher-combo catcher in the negative range, even if he’s held at second you almost can’t stop him from stealing third (70%). And wait! “Now Blanco’s edging off third… there he goes!!!” South Grand Prairie used a light variation of this strategy in 2021 as Billy Hamilton stole 15 bases despite just 20 at-bats. He was an automatic good lead runner (2-12) and had 18 and 16 as his lead numbers. As a pinch-runner deluxe who steals two bases a game, Blanco will have Raines’ record by the end of July and be available to the highest bidder for their stretch run in exchange for some freakish next-year talent. He may not be much of a hitter, but he’s alright. He’s alright! He’s alright with me. Hey, hey, hey, hey!

Eighth round to 15th round: Will need several 200-inning pitchers, a starting third baseman, some help at first base and a DH upgrade.

Yow!

The draft of the unknown soldiers

So many unknowns about our March 10 partial retention draft in Phoenix to kick off the 45th season of the I-75 League.

Unlike many years when the No. 1 pick is fairly obvious, this year it’s not.

The pool of great this-year-cards-who-will-help-me-make-the-playoffs is thin.

The pool of first-year player cards is deep overall, but thin at the top.

Add to that the fact that it’s a little hard to forecast picks for the top three teams. You never know what Bismarck’s gonna do in any draft, this is only the second draft for Carpe Diem, and Applegate’s season is so hopeless that it needs help just about everywhere other than right field for 100 games.

Then there’s the speed factor. The change in MLB rules for 2023 has resulted in seemingly every player suddenly becoming a star stealer. What impact will that have on our typically bombs-away collective mentality?

These are the things we think about as we prepare to choose our soldiers and go to war for yet another season.

• Have you looked at starting pitching? Assessing available right-handed starters with six innings of endurance, I count exactly two guys available with a balanced card: Kodai Senga (who’s already 31) and Bobby Miller. Everyone else gets fairly well roasted from one side of the plate or the other. You might as well take your chances with lefties after that.
• Never heard of Kutter Crawford, Cole Ragans, Tyler Holton? Better get familiar with these unknowns. Don’t be surprised if they get snapped up in the first round or early second.
• That lefty-long-relief strategy pioneered by Boulder’s Framber Valdez in 2021 (212 innings, almost all in relief) and ridden to success in 2022 in Dyersville with Ranger Suarez when he went a ridiculous 22-3 for the Treblemakers? Hard to see that being utilized this year; Ragans is the best candidate with 96 innings, and Greendale has retained Matt Strahm, who’d be serviceable with 88, but the rest of the lefties with innings get hit pretty hard by righties.
• There is an abundance of good relief cards, but many of them are 1-inning pitchers and many of those have low inning totals for the season. With the 105% rule stripped out this year, managers risk falling short of their required 600 at-bats and 1500 innings pitched to comprise a constitutional roster.
• And again, the speed. Not only will stolen bases increase, but so will the frequency with which you’ll have to hold runners. That puts increasing value on pitchers’ hold factors and catchers’ throwing arms. And, on middle infielders’ fielding ratings, which will worsen on more X-rolls than before. What kind of value does that give to a card like Ezequiel Tovar, a 1e7 shortstop with 581 at-bats but only a .695 OPS? How about Patrick Bailey, a 1(-3) catcher with 326 at-bats but only hits lefties?
• Catcher overall will be a fascinating position to watch in the draft, as there’s only one good all-around catcher available with 300-plus at-bats in the person of Yainer Diaz at 3(-2), and there’s no less than three teams (Carpe Diem, Superior, South Grand Prairie) that have a complete void at catcher going into the draft. Bismarck might as well have a void, as its only backstop is the middling Yasmani Grandal, a 3(+3). Hmm. Is it too early to take Diaz at No. 1 overall? No. 2 overall? Doubtful he’ll still be around on the second pass.

Maybe these unknowns will achieve clarity in the five weeks between today and the draft, or maybe our 45th draft will feature more draft-day intrigue than most. Stay tuned!

With chance to improve their team, these nine clubs never wavered

It’s just one player, and historically that one player never makes much of a dent in a championship run or even sticks around a long time. But just the chance that one might — so you’re saying there’s a chance — was enough for nine clubs to retain just 17 players instead of 18 and gamble on a hidden gem in our annual waiver draft.

Nine teams in the draft is more than we usually get, and many managers were eyeing the same players. You’re not likely to land your everyday cleanup hitter in the waiver draft, but starting pitching, lefty mashers and other role players were the most prized commodities. Superior and Bismarck had two former players each claimed, while single draftees came from five other clubs.

Here’s a recap of the one-round, nine-pick drama that played out over eight days to put some spark in the winter break. Comments are from the drafting managers:

1. Superior Titans: OF Robbie Grossman

Cut by: Bushwood
From Mike Renbarger — Why I took Robbie Grossman: There were 3 lefty-mashing outfielders available that could play a vital platoon role for the Titans in 2024.  I selected Grossman for his .952 OPS vs. LHP, a strong second half of the season … yet despite his 4 rating in LF/RF. 
Did you get the guy you wanted? Yes, of course.  I “earned” the first pick.
Other players I considered: It came down to a choice between the 3 available lefty-mashing outfielders: Grossman, Harrison Bader and Randall Grichuk. Bader was tempting, but his projected CF-1e11 scared me away.  Grichuk was tempting, but his lefty-mashing took place mostly in Coors Field, and I got scared away by SOM’s propensity to devalue BA-driven performance from Colorado players. All three got taken in the Waiver Draft. 
“Good pick!” Somebody else’s pick I admire and why: Josiah Gray, by the Clips. I initially thought that I would reselect my first cut, SP Josiah Gray, with no risk, since I was drafting first.  So all options were judged for value against Gray. I decided to pivot to Grossman, given that the Titans have an overabundance of starting pitcher innings already on the roster, but I expect Gray to continue to develop into a quality starting pitcher.

2. Carpe Diem OmegaWatts: IF Tommy Edman

Cut by: Greendale
From George Scienski — Why I took Tommy Edman: Positional flexibility (2B, SS, OF), enough AB to cover required AB for 2B, SS and all OF positions, good defense, decent speed, still young enough at 28, one more year of arbitration eligibility before free agency — so maybe he ups his game. (Edman becomes the first play to don an OmegaWatts uniform; Carpe Diem is changing its name from Cardinals for the ’24 season.)
Did you get the guy you wanted? With the second overall pick, I was confident that I would get my choice.  
Other players I considered: My fallback was pitching probably Gray, Jack Flaherty, Yu Darvish, Reid Detmers, Ranger Suarez.
“Good pick!” Somebody else’s pick I admire and why: Even when you get the guy that you think that you wanted, it’s so easy to think that you made the wrong decision.  A kind of buyer’s remorse.  I should have taken pitching or looked closer at Grichuk. I’m still trying to figure out how to value players.  At this point, last year I had 3 picks — Austin Hays, Whit Merrifield, and Wil Myers (and he is out of baseball).

3. Bismarck Bombers: C Yasmani Grandal

Cut by: Superior
From Steve Bizek — Why I took Yasmani Grandal: Mostly because he had 360 or so AB’s. Also like having a switch-hitter. Felt as though I needed a catcher. He appears to be a professional hitter. Knows the strike zone. Hoping he’ll be a decent fit for the Bombers.
Did you get the guy you wanted? Grandal was the player I coveted.
Other players I considered: Also considered Travis D’Arnaud
“Good pick!” Somebody else’s pick I admire and why: Liked the Grichuk pick (by West Atlanta) … probably my 18th keeper.

4. Savannah Scorpions: SP Yu Darvish

Cut by: Olympic Coast
From Steve Hart — Why I took Yu Darvish: There aren’t many starting pitchers in the draft with more than 120 IP worth drafting. Drafting Darvish as my sixth starter frees me from drafting two starting pitchers in the draft to equal Darvish. Additionally, despite his age, I consider Darvish to have a decent chance to put up good numbers (and being retainable) this MLB season. I was pleased he fell to me with my pick.
Did you get the guy you wanted? Yes
Other players I considered: Tommy Edman (to play the OF to share playing time with Leody Taveres and/or Alex Verdugo) and Gio Urshela (to share playing time with Gunnar Henderson at 3B) were numbers two and three on my list. 
“Good pick!” Somebody else’s pick I admire and why: The lefty mashers who went were good picks, IMHO.

5. Boulder Tree Huggers: OF Harrison Bader

Cut by: Bismarck

6. Applegate Paperclips: SP Josiah Gray

Cut by: Superior
From Gary Kicinski — Why I took Josiah Gray: I was licking my chops over a few lefty mashers but given my bleak 2024 outlook had to stay disciplined and try to take the youngest player I could find who had the potential to develop into a good, if not great, player for 5 to 8 years, even if his current card was nothing to write home about. The Nats like Gray, whom they obtained from the Dodgers in the Scherzer/Turner deal, and he should be a No. 2-3 starter for them at worst for a good long time. At age 26 he was the youngest of the three starting pitchers I was hoping would still be around with the sixth pick. And innings are becoming ever more of a precious commodity; boosting me closer to 1500 now will give me a teeny bit more flexibility to pursue position player prospects in the March draft.
Did you get the guy you wanted? Yes
Other players I considered: Dean Kremer, Clarke Schmidt, Randal Grichuk, Harrison Bader.
“Good pick!” Somebody else’s pick I admire and why: Randal Grichuk for West Atlanta is a beast against lefties, .995 OPS, one of the top 13 OPS in all of MLB vs. lefties among qualified hitters. A steal with the eighth pick.

7. Bushwood Gophers: SP Jack Flaherty

Cut by: Dyersville
From Dave Renbarger — Why I took Jack Flaherty:  Can never have enough pitching…He is still young and was a legit Cy Young contender just a few years ago…Like having Tigers on my team…Read a news story that suggested Jack is a great bounceback candidate, even though his card for this year won’t be much…Made two relief appearances last year so will have relief on his card.  Can serve as a mopup bullpen guy this year and hopefully a valued rotation guy in future years.
Did you get the guy you wanted?  Not at all.  I was lusting after three of the six players that went ahead of him.
Other players I considered: As a 1 in center who kills lefties and steal bases, Harrison Bader was the obvious No. 1 on my draft board, and I was stunned that Mike passed on him.  Then a couple of other guys also passed on him and I was getting my hopes up when the Huggers snagged him at No. 5.  Next on my list was Tommy Edman, a perfect fit for my team which is thin at second and center field (he is a 2 at both spots).  But George snagged him at No. 2.  Next up was Darvish, but Steve Hart told me he was gonna grab him at No. 4, so I knew he was out.  After Bader went at No. 5, I knew either Josiah Gray or Flaherty would be there for me at No. 7 and would be happy with either.  Liked Gray better but had a strong hunch that the Clips would take him.  Before pulling the trigger on Flaherty, I started wavering between him and Teoscar Hernandez (still young, decent card on a down year) but finally settled on Jack.
“Good pick!” Somebody else’s pick I admire and why: Would say that the two best-value picks were Bader at No. 5 and Randal Grichuk at No. 8.  Both guys should be heavy contributors in 2024.

8. West Atlanta Crush: OF Randal Grichuk

Cut by: Bismarck
From Jeff Richards — Why I took Randal Grichuk: For his 900+ ops vs lefties. He’s a 3 in LF so playable there.
Did you get the guy you wanted? I was looking at Bader, but when he was selected, Grichuk was the next best choice for that role. 
Other players I considered:  Well, Bader (see above).  However, if Grichuk had been taken, I would looking at Dean Kremer as a ‘fill-in-the-innings’ SP.
“Good pick!” Somebody else’s pick I admire and why:  See above regarding Bader.  900+ ops vs lefties, and a 1 fielder.

9. Olympic Coast Orcas: SP Reynaldo Lopez

Cut by: Boulder
From Jamin Rader — Why I took Reynaldo López: At the ninth pick, the guys I’d wanted for next-year benefit were gone, so it left me to pick someone who could benefit my team in 2025, and hopefully in future seasons as well. Reynaldo had a sizzling second half and will provide a decent 66 IP for my 2024 team. He signed with the Braves and, given that Chris Sale and Max Fried are both starters with big question marks when it comes to health, I think there is a good chance he starts next year. 
Did you get the guy you wanted: I wanted Robbie Grossman, Randal Grichuk or Harrison Bader, due to their splits against lefties. However, focusing beyond the 2024 I-75 season, I think Reynaldo has more future potential.
Other players I considered: RHP Jordan Hicks, LHP Nick Lodolo.
“Good Pick!” Somebody else’s pick I admire and why: Randal Grichuk going as late as eighth was a definite surprise to me — kudos to West Atlanta. They really needed offense vs. lefties in their outfield. Jack Flaherty wasn’t even on my radar, and if he can stay healthy, he could be an ace for future Bushwood ballclubs. Good picks.

Managers go prospecting to kick off 44th season

I-75 Leaguers attend a Yankees spring training game to whet their appetite for the draft to start our 44th season.

The prospects are good for another exciting I-75 League season after managers raced through a prospect-laden draft in a record 4 1/2 hours on March 5 in Tampa, Fla., to kick off our 44th season. (View draft grid here.)

Seven managers ventured to South Florida for our first in-person convention since 2020, while eight more drafted via the internet. The first round was more like a lightning round than a contemplative round, as mock drafts before the event seemed to have managers well-positioned to know who would be available and who they wanted.

We welcomed new manager George Scienski to the fold, and the Carpe Diem manager seized the moment, drafting like a seasoned veteran rather than a Strat newbie.

New manager George Scienski in his draft war room.

Our proximity to George Steinbrenner Field offered the chance to take in two Yankee games, and a road trip to Lakeland for a Tigers game enabled some of the veteran managers with Michigan connections to wax nostalgic. Meals at traditional eateries such as Sonny’s and Shell’s completed the convention checklist.

At a predraft meeting, new divisions were drawn to take effect for the 2024 season, and plaques were distributed to 2022 champions.

As for those prospects, Julio Rodriguez and Adley Rutschman went 1-2, as anticipated, to New New York and Tatooine, respectively. A pair of budding Braves superstars in Spencer Strider and Michael Harris II went 3-4 to Boulder and Greendale, respectively, leaving the studly card of veteran Justin Verlander available at No. 5 for West Atlanta.

West Atlanta manager Jeff Richards studies his predraft worksheets.

At No. 6, Margaritaville snagged 2B Andres Gimenez, anticipating the Marlins will be moving the Volcanoes’ current second sacker with limited at-bats, Jazz Chisholm, to center field. That was followed by a trade, with Boulder sending LHP Shane McClanahan — who’d only been a Tree Hugger for a few days — to Tatooine for the seventh pick, in order to get a 1-rated left fielder in Steven Kwan, fortifying a position where the Tree Huggers were lean. After South Grand Prairie chose high on-base all-purpose man Brendan Donovan at No. 8, Savannah manager Steve Hart claimed the prospect haul of the draft with back-to-back selections of left-side infielders Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson. Two days earlier, Savannah had shipped LHP Carlos Rodon to Bismarck for pick No. 9.

Volcanoes manager John McMillan attended in full Cardinals uniform and chats up Superior manager Mike Renbarger in moments leading up to the draft.

Pleased to see OF Corbin Carroll still available at No. 11, Superior began its reload by snagging the D-Backs outfielder regarded by some as the fastest player in baseball and many services as the top prospect in the game who hasn’t achieved rookie status. At No. 12, Applegate went for one of last year’s top 5 prospects who is first-time carded in Tigers center fielder Riley Greene. Carpe Diem’s debut selection was Houston shortstop Jeremy Pena at 13, while Dyersville went after a big gun in Reds pitcher Hunter Greene at 14. Bushwood closed the first round by getting a big bat and superior fielder at first base in Christian Walker.

Savannah and Superior kick off the 2023 season, with managers Steve Hart and Mike Renbarger eager to see their new clubs in action.

When it was all done, just about every manager in the league was left with either hope for the coming season, or hope for the future, thanks to one of the best prospect pools in recent memory.

Divisions redrawn for 2024

While all of the excitement is building toward the 2023 draft that is just hours away, one item of business had to be taken care of for the 2024 season. Per league rules, divisions needed to be redrawn for the 2024 season, as this year marks the fourth year of the current divisional alignment.

With former Detroit Drill Team manager Ken Kuzdak drawing team names out of a hat and Commissioner Dave Renbarger recording the picks on a greaseboard, divisional alignments were drawn as such:

West	North	South
New New York	West Atlanta	South Grand Prairie
Savannah	Bushwood	Greendale
Olympic Coast	Tatooine	Applegate
Bismarck	Dyersville	Margaritaville
Boulder	Superior	Carpe Diem

Commissioner Dave Renbarger looks over the divisional alignment for 2024.

Draft Day now less than four weeks away

This is when it starts to feel real, as the dates on the calendar in February start matching the dates on the calendar in March when the convention and draft are held.

If today is Sunday, Feb. 5, then we’re exactly four weeks away from Sunday, March 5, when we’ll hold the I-75 League’s annual draft to kick off our remarkable 44th season.

Convention lodgings have been secured in Tampa. Flights are booked, spring training game tickets have been purchased, and now all that remains is four weeks worth of draft cramming. Studying up on the talent available in this year’s draft pool, and studying up on your opponents’ strengths, weaknesses and likely draft needs.

By now you should have already downloaded the Strat ratings spreadsheet or ordered the book and are busy manipulating numbers. Strat has also opened up pre-orders for the actual game, which is useful if you’re also ordering the physical player cards, but not really necessary to take action on if you’re only ordering this year’s computer game and card images. (Be sure to order the card images in addition to the game. The two of them together will cost $70 plus tax. Also don’t check the option for the CD to be mailed to you, you will want to be able to download the game when available.) The release date for the computer game is Feb. 21.

Start thinking about whether you want to retain or discard your ballpark for 2023. In about a week we will begin that declaration process, followed by the ballpark draft for teams that decide to discard.

Here are some random observations based on early number-crunching:

It’s a great draft for prospects! Not only prospects who made their debut in 2022, but prospects who still have rookie eligibility for 2023 but received cards.

That having been said, it will be a shock to this reporter if anyone other than Julio Rodriguez goes No. 1 — a five-tool player with speed, power, average, on-base ability on both sides of his card and strong defense as well.

Aaron Judge is a beast as expected, with 12.6 homer chances against righties plus eight diamond chances, plus eye-popping average and on-base numbers and a 1(-4)e0 rating in right field. How can the Paperclips protect him in the lineup is the question — if he even remains a Paperclip?

Arguably, Matt Carpenter has an even better hitting card than Judge, depending on how you do your calculations. But he’s a 5 in the outfield, a 4 at the corners, and only gets 134 at-bats. How soon will he be selected?

Joey Meneses is this year’s Frank Schwindel. An over-30 first baseman with a crazy card but an uncertain future.

The craziest one-side of a card award goes to South Grand Prairie’s Paul Goldschmidt, who destroys lefties to a degree previously not witnessed — starting with a .611 batting average against southpaws according to the way we calculate cards. It goes on to .712 on-base, 1.313 slugging and 2.025 OB+slug. Pretty darn good against righties too, and a 1e1 at first base for the NL MVP.

While there are lots of hitters in the pool to get excited about, the same can’t really be said for pitchers. The ageless marvel Justin Verlander will be a sure-fire first-rounder as he sports the best card among all starters, not just available ones. Spencer Strider is just as great but with fewer innings (139), and as a starter/reliever offers the tantalizing possibility of being this year’s right-handed version of Ranger Suarez, who was used so effectively in a middle-inning role by Dyersville last year (22-3, 2.51 ERA). But if you miss the boat on those guys, as 13 teams will, the starting pitching talent pool dissolves quickly into mediocrity, once you get past another starter/reliever in Ross Stripling (141 innings) and draft-me-if-you-dare lefties Tyler Anderson and Jose Quintana.

Drafting relief pitching may become more of an exercise of getting enough innings as opposed to getting great cards. There are so many guys who rode the Triple-A shuttle and ended up with between 20 and 40 innings that it will be harder than ever to fill out a pen.

Sportswriters like to play the “if the season ended today” game to project playoff pairings late in the season. It’s only February here, but if the season started today with just our 18-man rosters, we’d have to project Tatooine and Margaritaville as the best bets for finishing with the league’s best record. Both have already stockpiled talented starting pitching depth and have at least 4-5 players with elite-level offensive cards. On top of that, the Rebels now own two of the top seven picks in the draft thanks to their recent trade with Olympic Coast. The Rebels will still have to find a way to shake the curse that they believe has befallen them ever since their playoff loss in 2021.

As part of our preseason assessment we grouped all 15 teams into three tiers of five teams each for offense and pitching. Tatooine and Margaritaville were the only two teams that came out in the top tier in both categories. The other teams (alphabetically) in the top tier for offense were Applegate, Boulder and West Atlanta; the other teams in the top tier for pitching were Olympic Coast, Savannah and South Grand Prairie.

There could be a wholesale changing of the guard this season as many of last year’s playoff participants don’t have nearly the firepower of 2022. Another interesting stat is looking back at last year’s first round, Superior picked No. 1 and went all the way to the World Series title, but the teams picking 2-3-4-5-6 all missed the playoffs, while the teams picking 7-8-9-10-11 all made them.

Since this is the fourth year of our four-year divisional cycle, the night before the draft we will be redrawing the divisional alignments for the 2024 season. This is done by randomly picking team names out of a hat.

Just one more thing to look forward to from the 44th consecutive Best Convention Ever!

Dawning of a new era for the I-75 League?

I-75 League managers drafting from locations across the country pause for a “group photo” just seconds before the start of the league’s 43rd annual draft. (Click to enlarge)

Whoa.

This isn’t your father’s I-75 Strat League anymore.

Seven pitchers taken in the first round? FOUR OF THEM LEFT-HANDED???

A shortstop with ‘weak’ power against both lefties and righties going in the first round?

A 30-home-run hitter sliding to the 10th round?

What happened to the prevailing draft strategy of winning by brute force?

A kinder, gentler I-75 League emerged this year as we kicked off our 43rd season on March 6 with a focus on pitching and getting on base. This after consecutive years of shattering even MLB’s records for home run proclivity.

For the second year in a row our annual draft was held via Zoom call instead of an in-person convention, due to the owners’ lockout of major league players and the cancellation of spring training games. But the connection was solid and the drama just as intense.

The 5 1/2-hour, 15-round draft began as expected, with Superior adding Wander Franco to its stable of established superstars that includes Fernando Tatis Jr. and Bryce Harper. Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill, who hit 34 homers in 482 at-bats, went second to Bismarck, which later added part-time slugger Frank Schwindel from the Cubs to give the Bombers a nice heart-of-the-order trio, along with infielder Marcus Semien.

Next came a stretch of young players with bright futures: Blue Jays pitcher Alek Manoah to Olympic Coast at No. 3, Reds second baseman and NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India to Boulder at No. 4, and highly touted Mariners outfielder Jared Kelenic to Margaritaville at No. 5.

With two holes in its outfield, West Atlanta filled the first one with 31-year-old Mitch Haniger of Seattle at No. 6.

Six of the remaining nine first-round picks were pitchers: Lefty Carlos Rodon at No. 7 to Savannah, super-versatile lefty Ranger Suarez at No. 8 to Dyersville, a pair of righties in Anthony Desclafani and Kyle Gibson to Destin at No. 10 and No. 15, and lefty starters Robbie Ray (MLB strikeout leader in 2021) and Trevor Rogers (runner-up to India for NL ROY) to Greendale and New New York at No. 13 and 14 respectively.

In the gaps were gap-hitter Nicky Lopez at No. 9 to Applegate, allowing the Clips to bump ‘4’-rated shortstop Xander Bogaerts to DH; and mild surprises in outfielders Akil Baddoo to Margaritaville at No. 10 and Brandon Marsh to South Grand Prairie at No. 12, signaling “playing for the future” for those two clubs. Olympic Coast also joined the prospect bandwagon.

And now, let the games begin, with hopes high in at least 11 or so franchises for postseason glory!

43rd annual draft holds lots of intrigue

I-75 League managers on a pre-draft Zoom call March 5, 2022.

A dozen years from now, when some of us are old and gray, we may look back at a specific point in time — 2:01 p.m. ET, March 6, 2022 — and say, “That was the moment the Superior dynasty was born.”

The Titans hold the No. 1 overall pick for the I-75 League’s 43rd annual draft, where it is widely expected they will select Tampa Bays wunderkind Wander Franco (unless they trade the pick).

If the 21-year-old shortstop blossoms into the superstar talent that many have forecast, that will give the Titans three franchise players, along with Bryce Harper (29) and Fernando Tatis Jr., (23) to form a core of superstars that will be tough to compete against at least for the rest of this decade.

While both Tatis and Franco hold down the same primary position of shortstop, both were used at other positions last season as well. And there’s always the DH position, or the possibility of trading one for equivalent talent.

On top of that, you can’t overlook the fact that the Titans also have highly regarded outfielders Dylan Carlson and Jo Adell, who are poised to one day take their own steps into stardom.

And while there may not be much drama over who will be chosen as the No. 1 pick, there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding the rest of the first round:

• Will there be a feeding frenzy for staring pitching? In most years we see the first round dominated by great offensive cards and great prospects. This year though, there aren’t that many great prospects, and multiple contending teams have holes in their rotations that could become gully washers if they don’t act quickly to snap up some of the few decent starting pitchers with innings in them, many of whom throw from the less-preferred side of the mound.
• Speaking of great prospects, after Franco, there aren’t that many in this year’s draft. And apart from Olympic Coast, there aren’t any obvious or known teams who will be “playing for next year.” Does that give the Orcas a free and clear path to nab all the prospects who are available?
• Where did all the trades go? At this writing, the top nine draft picks remain in possession of their original owner. That’s never happened in the 15-team era! Not even close! Last year, four of the top nine picks were acquired via trade. In prior years: 4 top nine picks acquired via trades in 2020 when Tatis Jr. fell to Superior at No. 3, 4 in 2019, a whopping 7 in 2018, 4 in 2017, 3 in 2016, 4 in 2015, 5 in 2014, 2 in 2013 when Harper went No. 1 overall, and 4 in 2012 (the Alex Avila Draft; Mike Trout went No. 5). In fact there’ve only been 10 offseason trades to this point. Will things change as the drafting hour approaches? Will teams be swinging more in-draft deals?
• Shortstop is another position in high demand; about four teams have a complete void at a position that is as shallow as it’s ever been.
• Quantity vs. quality: Drafting smartly will include managing your innings pitched and at-bats at each position to get to 1,500 and 600. Can you get by with two catchers or will it take three? If you procrastinate, will you be forced to draft a lesser talent at a position just for the sake of meeting the minimums?

We won’t have to wait long for the answers to these questions. Grab your pretzel rods and chocolate donuts, your spreadsheets and yellow highlighters, your laptops and your BPs.

For the 43rd year in a row, let’s draft!

 

Will 2022 mark the revenge of the southpaws?

Need a starting pitcher? Just about every team does. Some teams need two or three. With quality starting pitching pretty thin in this year’s draft pool, you may have to ask yourself:

Do you feel lucky?

Lucky enough to snag a left-handed pitcher and have him be at least serviceable?

The fact is, there are more decent left-handed starting pitcher cards available in the draft this year than right-handers. But left-handers traditionally have underperformed in I-75, as 30 teams’ worth of lefty mashers are condensed into 15 lineups that stack the odds against the southpaws.

This year though, some managers may have no other choice.

Last year, five starting pitchers were selected in the first round.

In 2020, just three starting pitchers went in the first round. In 2019 there were four.

Every one of those first-round starting pitchers chosen was right-handed. This year, the forecast is for as many as six to eight starting pitchers going in the first round, potentially three of them being southpaws. The need for starting pitching is particularly acute among the teams in the bottom third of the first-round order — last year’s playoff squads.

Why? Well, many teams already have their position players set or close to set. It seems unwise to spend a first-round pick on a 50-inning relief pitcher. And there are not a lot of stud prospects this year.

Meanwhile there are holes aplenty in pitching rotations, and the right-handed starting pitcher talent pool drops off a cliff after the top six guys or so.

Enter a collection of about eight or so lefties whose card ratings would suggest they could fare as well as any righty south of the top-six Tier One category. There’s just one problem, the same problem there’s been for many years:

Mike Zunino, Frank Schwindel, Tyler O’Neill, Evan Longoria and dozens more just like them who eat lefties for lunch.

So the question remains, do you feel lucky?

Well, do ya, punk?

Know who you’re drafting when in Mr. Rogers’ neighborhood

With the I-75 League’s 43rd draft just days away, it’s time to play, Know Your T. Rogerseseses.

This year there will be no more sure-fire way to make the draft moderator’s blood boil than to enter “T. Rogers” as your selection. There are three “T. Rogers” draft-eligible players — all of them pitchers, all of them likely to go in the draft. Here’s the proper way to identify them for draft grid brevity:

TrRogers — Trevor Rogers, lefty starter from the Miami Marlins. Second in NL Rookie of the Year voting last year after posting a 2.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. One of the top lefty starters available in the draft, offers 140 innings (at 105%) made all the more attractive by his dominance against righties (he’s a 4R). No homers on his card vs. righties, but 40 strikeout chances. Just 24 years old. Projection: First-round pick.

TyRogers — Tyler Rogers, 31-year-old righty reliever for the San Francisco Giants. Born Dec. 17, 1990, in Littleton, Colo. One of the top reverse-righty cards in the draft, his attractiveness is enhanced by his ability to close — he’s a C(3) — and his hefty 85 innings (at 105%). Gives up some hits to righties but keeps it in the park. Not a strikeout guy, but his average/on-base-slugging numbers vs. lefties calculates to .090 / .090 / .099. Projection: Fifth-round pick.

TayRogers — Taylor Rogers, 31-year-old lefty reliever for the Minnesota Twins. Also born Dec. 17, 1990, in Littleton, Colo. Wears a T-shirt under his jersey that says “I am not Tyler.” Sports a nice 60-K count vs. lefty hitters and low average/on-base numbers (.116), but be wary of the home run ball on that side. Also a C(3) but only offering 42 innings at 105%. Projection: Eighth- to 10th-round pick.

Coming soon: Know Your L. Garciaseses.

Savannah Scorpions draft recap

Nancy and Steve Hart pin a rank insignia on David Hart, center, as David is commissioned a lieutenant in the U.S. Army in 2014.

Savannah manager Steve Hart penned this Scorpions draft recap in the form of an email letter to his son and draft adviser, David.

Good morning, David,

Sorry I wasn’t able to monitor my phone (for your text messages) during the draft.  The draft was fast-moving as each team only got 90 seconds to make their picks for the first few rounds (and 120 seconds thereafter).  I had to edit my spreadsheets as each player was taken.

I like our team.   Here is my thought process for each round of the draft.

ROUND 1:  Though Garth surprised everybody by taking Bohm (3B) with  the second pick and leaving Luis Robert for me, I stuck with our draft strategy and selected Corbin Burnes and his amazing 2.11 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 180 innings.  After our multiplier, he fanned an astounding 264 batters in those 180 innings.  The only worry is his +9 hold — but not many guys are going to get on base vs. him.  I was surprised Madrigal went early in round one (1.6) and Deivi Garcia mid-round one (1.10).  Jo Adell went with pick 1.15 (boy did he look lost at the plate last year).

ROUND 2:  I was  happy for Austin Nola to still be there for us.  Getting a high AB catcher who is decent defensively and is a run-producer is a huge get!   We both know it is doubtful he will come close to duplicating his 2020 stats (though Baseball Reference predicts he will hit .255 with 17 homers — good for a .771 OPS).  Dylan Carlson and David Peterson went later in this round.  Tristan McKenzie and Casey Mize also went in this round (some teams are in total rebuild mode).

In Year 42, a tradition unlike any other for the masters of Strat

I-75 League managers pause for a group photo just prior to the first pick of the 2021 I-75 League draft. (Click to enlarge.)

The I-75 League wasn’t about to let a little thing like a worldwide pandemic get in the way of its fun.

Although COVID-19 forced the league to scuttle its annual onsite convention in either Florida or Arizona, the league gathered virtually over a Zoom call and a Google doc to draft the rosters that would compete for division and world championship honors in its 42nd season. 

The six-hour, 15-round draft went off with nary a technological hitch as managers jockeyed for position to draft Strat-O-Matic cards that would either strengthen their competitiveness for this season, or enhance their chances in future years. Or both. 

Each team began the draft with a base of 18 or so players retained from the previous season. Destin, already a strong divisional favorite, kicked off the proceedings by unsurprisingly selecting the player with the best hitting card in the set, Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes. South Grand Prairie surprisingly followed suit with another third baseman, the Phillies’ Alec Bohm, a highly regarded player but one few would have expected to go in the top two. 

Savannah was next at No. 3, having traded down from the No. 1 pick with Destin, and still getting the pitching ace it wanted in Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes, who has 180 innings with no hits against righties on his card. (And the Scorpions picked up Jackie Bradley Jr. in the trade to boot.)

42nd season of I-75 League set to click off

I-75 League managers gathered via Zoom for a pre-draft meeting prior to the draft to kick off the league’s 42nd season. (Click to enlarge.)

League managers convened electronically on the evening of March 5 to lay the groundwork for March 6’s 2021 draft that will kick off the I-75 League’s 42nd season.

In recent years we’ve always had a handful of managers drafting remotely but the bulk of the managerial group was gathered at a draft central site in Florida or Arizona. Saturday’s draft will commence at 2 p.m. ET and be held completely virtually via Zoom, with picks made via a Google doc.

Managers will be allotted 90 seconds to make their picks during the first four rounds. They will have 120 seconds to make their picks in the fifth through 15th rounds. A 30-minute dinner break will be held after the seventh round. 

Friday’s festivities included a virtual awarding of plaques to 2020 division winners Dave Renbarger, John Renbarger and Mike Renbarger, and a recognition of Mike’s Superior Titans as 2020 world champions. 

Managers reviewed procedures for the draft and the rules for the 2021 season that include a new rule regarding starting pitcher removal and a new formula for calculating hitter and pitcher limits (three times original at-bat or innings pitched total). We also reviewed the rule requiring pitchers to face three batters or end an inning before they can be removed. 

Managers also discussed a proposal by John Renbarger to maintain a two-man taxi squad beginning at the end of this season, similar to the four-man cab unit voted in for this year due to COVID-19. A straw vote found eight managers in favor. The topic will be revisited before the trade deadline. 

To wrap things up, a one-round mock draft was held with managers picking for the team ahead of them in the actual draft order. South Grand Prairie, picking for No. 1 Destin, selected rookie phenom Luis Robert as the top overall pick.

Will that be how the draft plays out for real? We’ll find out in about 16 hours. Let’s draft!

Changing of the guard on tap for 2021?

Vegas oddsmakers have installed three 2020 non-playoff teams as favorites to capture division crowns in the 2021 I-75 League season, the league’s 42nd.

Oddsmakers like Tatooine to win the West, Destin to win the North, and Greendale to win the South.

If those feats come to pass, they would mark a worst-to-first turnaround for the Rebels, who won just 52 games last year. Destin is coming off a 76-win season, while Greendale was first-team-out in 2020 with 84 wins.

Oddsmaker Jimmy the Geek tells us that he likes Tatooine because of offseason moves that has it entering the draft with a fully loaded lineup and pitching rotation, plus six picks in the first five rounds. “While other teams are plugging holes in their lineups, scrapping for starting pitchers or regretting decisions to burn high draft picks on prospects with terrible cards, Tatooine can afford to stockpile stud relief pitchers to fortify an already dazzling back-end bullpen,” said Geek.

Geek sees Tatooine coasting to an easy victory in a comparatively weak division. The Rebels have on-base, power and defense, and need only a couple of role players to fill out part-time duties at catcher, second base and center field. By the Geek’s formula, the Rebels have three players with a better-than-.500 on-base average against righties, and five players with a better-than-.400 batting average against righties. Then there’s six guys in double figures for homer chances against righties (ballpark-adjusted).

On the mound, Tatooine already boasts five more-than-capable starting pitchers, although a sixth man will be needed to shore up some innings deficiencies. And the bullpen sports lights-out reliever Nick Anderson, acquired by trade, and Edwin Diaz.

“I see Tatooine being able to swoop in with the ninth pick and land Brewers relief phenom Devin Williams, followed by a double dose of setup studliness in Mike Mayers with the 16th pick,” said Geek. “That gives Tatooine 171 innings of nearly unhittable late-inning lightning — before you even get to Anderson.” Gulp.

Get ready for Extreme Strat

What hell hath Strat wrought with this year’s card set?

There are 36 pitchers who have no hits on their card against lefties. Zero, zip, nada. Thirty-six! There are 146 pitchers whose batting-average-against for lefty hitters is less than .100. One hundred and forty six!!!

Of course that doesn’t mean the cards for those 36 is blank, far from it. Just ask Brad Brach, who has 0 hits and (cough, gasp) 61 walks against lefty hitters. Walks are the new Black among this year’s pitching cards.

This is the hand we asked to be dealt, playing a full 160-game season with 60-game stats. The aberrations in this year’s card set are extreme, if not astounding. Pandemic-willing, we will probably never see cards like this ever again. But those are the cards up for grabs in the 42nd I-75 League draft, set to commence in a virtual fashion for the first time ever, this Saturday, March 6.

After 41 years of in-person drafts (albeit with some absentee managers drafting remotely), this year we go all-Zoom as a safety precaution. That in and of itself will make it the strangest draft ever, but throw in the abnormalities of the cards this year and you’ve got the potential for some strange days indeed.

The extremes include some ridiculous offensive cards, with 78 cards calculating out (by Applegate’s formula) to 1.000 or better OPS, after 68 last year and just 43 the year before.  Jose Ramirez calculates out to a 2.090 OPS vs. lefties, for pete’s sake.

There are five guys with 20-plus (ballpark-adjusted) homer chances vs. lefties, two of whom are eligible to be drafted.

There are four guys with better than a .600 on-base percentage vs. right-handed pitchers. In last year’s set, there were only four guys who topped .500, and zero over .600.

2021 Cutdown Plans, Rule Reminders

With the Jan. 21 release of card ratings, the wheels are in motion now to spin us toward Draft Day for the start of the 42nd season of I-75 League play. So we thought it would be an appropriate time to review the upcoming calendar and rules for the 2021 season that were implemented in light of the unusual 60-game format from the 2020 major league season.

Calendar

Cutdown deadline: By Sunday, Feb. 7, at 11:59 p.m. ET, you will be required to cut your 2021 retention roster to either 18 or 17 players. If you cut it to 17 you’ll be eligible to participate in the one-round waiver draft that commences shortly after the cutdown deadline, where players just cut loose from our 15 teams enter the waiver pool and can be claimed in order of 2020 worst record to best record. An email form will be sent out to league managers to fill out, as in past years.

Taxi squad: One different wrinkle to this year’s cutdown is that beyond your 17/18 retention roster, you may protect up to four players on a taxi squad. The idea behind the taxi squad was to give managers an opportunity to retain players who opted out of the 2020 season, or missed significant time because of COVID or injuries, or were drafted as prospects who received little to no playing time. However you may place anyone you want on the taxi squad. But, players on the taxi squad are ineligible to play or be traded in the I-75 League during the 2021 season. Additionally, you may keep no more than two of them on the taxi squad after the all-star break; teams with more than two will have to cut back to two during the break. Players on the taxi squad do not count against your 38-man roster limit. The taxi squad completely expires in December of 2021 when that winter’s player cutdown is held; players on the taxi squad must be either retained as part of the 17/18-man roster or released. 

Waiver draft: The waiver draft will be held during the week immediately after the cutdown deadline (Feb. 8-14). Per our Constitution, as a replacement manager, Lafayette’s Mickey Boone has the option to protect as few as 13 players and gets first crack at up to five waiver wire players before the rest of the league makes its picks.