Six guys whose draft stock might be falling

Mock drafts in which folks are drafting for other teams are all fine and good, but when it’s your player you’re drafting for your team, for real, your considerations might be more risk-averse. This can result in players’ stock plummeting — or, another way of looking at it, good players becoming bargain picks if acquired later than expected.

As we hit the two-week mark before the draft to kick off the 45th season of the I-75 League, here’s a look at some players whose stock might be falling.

Kodai Senga, SP, Mets — Arguably the best right-handed starter available, with 166 innings, a 6 for his endurance inning, high strikeout counts both ways, low batting average card both ways. But: He’s starting the season on the IL, with a shoulder injury no less, and he’s 31 years old. Potentially narrows his list of suitors to teams “going for it” this year without consideration of his long-term value.

Marcell Ozuna, OF/DH, Braves — The only player in the draft who hit 40 homers last year, Ozuna offers power both ways and the ability to play full-time with 530 at-bats. But he’s a 5(+4)e4 in the outfield, so unless you have a DH vacancy or an X-chart death wish, he may not be a great fit for your team. And his value will diminish depending on your ballpark. He’s also already 33, but he is part of a monster-laden Braves lineup, and as long as he stays on the right side of the law, could continue to be productive for a couple more years. But you just never know with Ozuna.

Noelvi Marte, 3B, Reds — OK, different scenario. Not a “going for it” pick like Senga or Ozuna, Marte’s challenge is an overcrowded Reds infield. The team is already packed with hot young stars who made their debut last year, many of them playing multiple positions (Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Will Benson, Christian Encarnacion-Strand). Marte, a top-30 prospect by just about every rating service, clocked 114 at-bats and impressed with a card that offers an OBP north of .400 each way. He looks to be the third baseman of the future, but the Reds signed veteran corner infielder Jeimer Candelario this winter as well — to a three-year, $45 million contract. There’s only 26 spots on the roster, so the Reds won’t be paying Candelario to sit on the bench. Book it: On the eve of Opening Day the Reds will be announcing that Marte (or possibly CES) will start the season in the minors, “so he can get regular playing time.”

Francisco Alvarez, C, Mets — A lot of teams need help at catcher. Some (Superior, Carpe Diem, South Grand Prairie) have complete voids there. But if you don’t get Yainer Diaz and his big bat against righties and minus-2 arm, are you investing a high pick in Alvarez, with his sub-.200 average each-way, and +1 throwing arm card, despite his revered top-5 prospect list status among many services? Immense potential to fall to the second round; equally likely potential to be looked back at in a few years as the bargain of the 2024 draft.

Nolan Jones, 1B/3B/OF, Rockies — Jones was a pretty middling prospect with the Guardians who had up-and-down seasons in the minors before he was dealt to the Rockies for Juan Brito. The Guardians are probably regretting that move after Jones’ 20-homer, 20-stolen base, .931 OPS 2023 season that gives him one of the best offensive cards in the draft. But will he come back down to earth or is he a future batting champion in Colorado? If you’re looking at him as a “going for it” guy, where does he play? The minus-5 arm is great in the outfield but it comes with a 4 fielding rating. He’s already 25 as he’s bursting onto the scene. There weren’t any ‘4’ fielders drafted in our first round last year. He’s only a 3 at first base (a 4 at 3B), but he’s ticketed for LF this year. The offensive numbers are so great with a healthy 367 ABs that somebody will likely bite the bullet on him early. It just might not as early as one might think with that great of an offensive card.

Esteury Ruiz, OF, A’s — In MLB’s new era emphasizing speed, you’d think the game’s stolen base leader (67) would be an attractive high pick. But many teams will conclude that to eat up a precious roster spot you have to bring something more to the table than basestealing. Ruiz’s offense is nothing to write home about, and he’s a 4(0)e11 in center field. He has a 75% chance of getting a good lead and (20,16) numbers, which is very, very good, but not Super Freak good. Projections have him stealing more like 50 bases this year, so it’s not like experts expect him to leap up to 80. Thus his modest future value dampens the likelihood of him going in any round before the pizza break.

What happened to the 2022 first-round picks?

By Jamin Rader

Jamin Rader

I joined the I-75 League in 2021, and participated in my first draft in 2022. It was a nerve-racking experience — it felt like every pick was boom or bust for my new team. I took a look back at that first round to reminisce and came away with a surprising question: what happened to the 2022 first-round picks? While many of the first-rounders were difference-makers in 2022 and 2023, almost none of them will be major contributors in 2024.

Here are the numbers: Of the 15 players taken in the first round of 2022, only six (picks 1-5, 12) are currently rostered. Only Kyle Gibson has a card with a full* season of usage (192 IP) in the upcoming draft. Only two players (Wander Franco and Brandon Marsh) have genuinely good cards going into 2024, but of these two, only Marsh has a clear future in the MLB.

So what happened? Let’s dive deeper.

No. 1: Wander Franco

Drafted by: Superior

“I Wander if he’ll ever play again” — Manager Mike Renbarger, probably. If it wasn’t for Shohei Ohtani’s massive deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the investigation into Franco’s relations with a minor might have been the biggest story of the offseason. Franco sports a fantastic card, especially against left-handed pitching, and a gleaming 1e14 at shortstop, but it may well be his last.

No. 2: Tyler O’Neill 

Drafted by: Bismarck

O’Neill put up .292/.366/.557 with 35 bombs for the Bombers in 2022, but he has yet to live up to his second-overall hype since. He’s headed to Boston this season. Maybe the change of scenery will get him back on track. Maybe he’ll stay off the IL. He’s just too talented to give up on… maybe.

No. 3: Alek Manoah

Drafted by: Olympic Coast

What happened here? Manoah delivered consecutive sub-3.00 ERA seasons in ’22 and ’23 while going 22-11 for the Orcas. Manoah quickly turned into Manure in an upside-down season that renders his 2024 card useless. He was retained by the Orcas, however, in hopes that he will return to his Cy Young-finalist form.

No. 4: Jonathan India

Drafted by: Boulder

The 2021 Rookie of the Year put up a glimmering .353 OBP for Boulder in 2022 and has been MLB-average ever since. MLB-average play doesn’t win games in this 15-team league. India, like O’Neill and Manoah, is still young and may yet re-emerge into a cornerstone for Boulder’s lineup. But in 2024? He doesn’t have much more to offer than a just-OK bat and an unreliable glove.

No. 5: Jarred Kelenic

Drafted by: Margaritaville

Kelenic was traded to Applegate last season, directly before he suffered a self-inflicted foot injury, furthering Applegate’s rebuilding woes. The top prospect has yet to live up to his fifth-round pick potential, but he is still just 24. He will have a change of scenery in Atlanta. Will he finally break out? Or will he get ‘clipped before the season’s end?

No. 6: Mitch Haniger

Drafted by: West Atlanta

Unlike the first five players on this list, Haniger will be available in the 2024 draft! Haniger mashed 29 home runs for West Atlanta in 2022, and has yet to play even half a season in the MLB since. Crush’d by injuries, Haniger was released by West Atlanta at the end of the 2022 season and hasn’t seen I-75 action since.

No. 7: Carlos Rodon

Drafted by: Savannah

Rodon was unstoppable in 2022 and 2023, going 25-14 with a 3.31 ERA in that span. Rodon won the Pittman Cup with the Tatooine Rebels in 2023. Instead of a handshake and a “thanks,” the Rebels gave Rodon the axe. Add Rodon to your empire for cheap in the upcoming draft. 

No. 8: Ranger Suarez

Drafted by: Dyersville

Suarez was unstoppable in 2022. 22 wins? Not a problem. A 2.51 ERA? Of course. 67 relief appearances? You know it. But unfortunately for Suarez, he’s a lefty, and only the most dominant and consistent lefty pitchers can make it in the I-75 League. Suarez was released by Dyersville after the 2023 season. 

No. 9: Nicky Lopez 

Drafted by: Applegate

Nicky Lopez had one thing the rest of the 2022 draftees didn’t. A platinum glove and a solid bat. He was pivotal up the middle in Applegate’s 2022 playoff season (.989 fielding percentage), but his card has been unusable since. If you’re looking for a glove-first option at 2B in the upcoming draft, look further than Lopez.

No. 10: Akil Baddoo

Drafted by: Margaritaville

Where is he now?

After a strong 2022 season with Margaritaville and West Atlanta, Baddoo do bad. Given his inability to hit lefty pitching, he needs to be part of a platoon. Unfortunately, he’s apparently forgotten how to hit righties too. 

No. 11: Anthony Desclafani

Drafted by: Destin (now Carpe Diem)

Here is list of all Desclafani’s injuries since the 2022 draft: Ankle (4/22/22), Ankle (7/1/22), Toe (5/13/23), Shoulder (7/2/23), Elbow (7/27/23). Desclafani delivered a 4.08 ERA for Destin, then was cut. From Beach Bum to beach bum, Desclafani remains unrostered. There still remains an outside chance he plays with an I-75 club in 2024. 

No. 12: Brandon Marsh

Drafted by: South Grand Prairie

A prospect-y pick in 2022, Marsh finally broke out in the 2023 MLB season. The Warriors have waited patiently and now get so see his elite defense and strong card versus righties play in tandem.

No. 13: Robbie Ray

Drafted by: Greendale

Robbie, the third of four lefty pitchers taken in the first round of the 2022 draft, met a similar fate. A mediocre 4.32 ERA in 2022 was followed by a mediocre 4.48 ERA in 2023. Injuries led to his final demise, and he was cut from the Zealots’ roster last December.

No. 14: Trevor Rogers

Drafted by: New New York

Rogers looked like a great young prospect in 2022. He hasn’t been good, or healthy, since. He’s unrostered, but he’s in good company. 2022 draftees Tyler (40th overall), Jake (110th), and Taylor (124th) Rogers are also on the hunt for a job in the I-75 League.

No. 15: Kyle Gibson

Drafted by: Tatooine

You have to give credit to Gibson. Unlike the rest of the players picked in the first round of the 2022 draft, Gibson actually played a full season in 2023 (192 IP). Looking for some filler innings? Find Gibson in the mid-to-late rounds of the 2024 draft.

If you want to revisit what we were thinking at the time, here’s our 2022 draft preview and recap.

*Full season is defined as 3 ABs/game, or 1 IP/game.

Gimme all the Super Freaks. All of ’em.

Last season was emotionally demoralizing for the Clips, knowing their noncompetitive team was playing for “next year” and only winning 74 games. Now “next year” is here and the prospects for the playoffs look even worse.

If we’re not gonna win games we gotta find some way to keep it fun, so we’re here to unveil, as a public service, our complete drafting strategy as we head into our March 10th retention draft to kick off the 45th season of the I-75 League.

So we’re going after the quirky cards, the unusual cards, the unique cards, the freaky cards. Cue Rick James. Presenting the Applegate Super Freaks, who this year will never let our spirits down.

First round: OF Evan Carter. Yes he’s a beast against righties, but a chance to own this historic card against lefties cannot be passed up. This guy’s card tilts so far to the right I’ll be surprised if it aligns horizontally on the screen. Besides the .000 average against lefties, Carter’s card sports an unheard-of 84 strikeouts against lefties, if the Strat rankings are to be believed. That’s a card you don’t take home to mother. He also has 10 walk chances and 11 gb(a) chances, with no ballpark single chances, so that’s 105 of the 108 chances on a hitter’s card. We can practically predict his card right here: 3 column, all strikeouts. 2 column, all strikeouts. 1 column, walks at 1-5, 1-6 and 1-12. Groundball (a) at 1-7 and 1-8. Lineout at 1-10. Rest strikeouts.

First round, second pick: 1B/3B/OF Nolan Jones. This guy is apparently the second coming of Roberto Clemente with a minus-5 arm, yet somehow is paired with a 4 fielding rating. I guess he lets balls fall in for a double and then throws them out trying to stretch it to a triple? Do you play him for his arm or DH him for his lack of athletic ability in the field? We have the perfect solution. We’ll play Jones at first base, where he’s a better fielder than Joey Meneses, then when a runner is trying to go first to third, or score from second, or tag up, while the play’s in progress we’ll make a defensive substitution to get Jones’ howitzer into position to throw out the runner. This is a little-known legal maneuver in 48 of the 50 states. How’d we get a second pick in the first round, you ask? We will trade Aaron Judge and his inadequate minus-4 arm to gain a pick to snag Jones.

Second round: OF Nelson Velazquez. Who? Velazquez fills our all-important seventh outfielder spot on the club thanks to super freaky righty-on-righty power numbers along with 162 at-bats. How freaky? Well, he has 15.6 pure homer chances against righties plus the maximum 8 diamond chances. Split the difference on those ballpark chances and that’s 19.6 homer chances against righties. For perspective, that’s 47% more than Aaron Judge, who has 13.3. On occasion you’ll see this kind of power against lefties but rarely against righties, especially from a righty. I’m snagging him before the Coors Field Volcanoes, now in our division, do, where on sunny days Velazquez might have up to 23 homer chances.

Third round: OF Jorge Soler. Now that we have all these studs against righties I’m a little concerned about teams throwing lefties at us. Soler is the perfect defense against that, with the same 19.6 homer chances against lefties that Velazquez offers against righties. He becomes our eighth outfielder, but I’m snagging him before the Coors Field Volcanoes, now in our division, do, where on sunny days Soler might have up to 23 homer chances.

Fourth round: One of those Blue Jays infielders. I’m sort of set up the middle with Xander Bogaerts and Bryson Stott, but the constitution requires two guys at every position, so this round I’m eyeballing either Ernie Clement or Davis Schneider. Clement’s card is beyond super freaky; no strikeouts or walks on either side. Hits .545 against righties, .466 against lefties. I’m leaning toward Schneider though, because of more at-bats (116 vs. 50), and a .586 OBA vs. lefties with 15.5 homer chances. Plus, he can fill in as our ninth outfielder in a pinch.

Fifth round: LHP Andrew Saalfreak: No way I’m passing up the chance to draft a guy named Saalfreak for the Applegate Super Freaks. To begin with, he got a card even though he only pitched 10 innings. For another, he’s a lefty with a .000 batting-average-against card vs. lefties, with just 6 walk chances. He’s the perfect guy to bring in against Greendale when Juan Soto strides to the plate with two outs and the bases loaded in the third inning. Don’t want to pinch-hit for Soto this early in the game, do ya Greendale??? “Here’s the pitch… and Saalfreak gets Soto to ground meekly to second base. So that gets Applegate out of the jam, and we go to the top of the fourth, and the score remains, Greendale 10, Applegate 2.” I can do this 30 times over the course of the season, keeping me in games and making this draft pick well worth the investment. P.S. I’m presuming by the fourth round that other nearly-blank freak cards such as righties Shelby Miller and Jeff Hoffman and lefties Tyler Holton and JoJo Romero will already be gone. P.P.S. This just in, it’s Saalfrank, not Saalfreak. No matter.

Sixth round: C Martin Maldonado. Back in the day, when speedsters ruled the top of the order, “A-B” guys were the choice du jour for a two-hole hitter. This meant an A bunter and a B hit-and-run guy. On the off-chance that your speedster failed to get a lead, you could burn the defense with an easy sacrifice bunt (often for a hit), or a hit-and-run play that often resulted in runners at first and third. Sadly this lost art of bat control has given way to Kyle Schwarbers batting leadoff and teams’ best hitters batting second, guys whom you don’t want giving themselves up. But 37-year-old Maldonado with his 1-8 speed is bringing that lost art back. Out of the 523 hitters retained and eligible to be drafted this year, there’s only one who is an “A-B” player. His name is Martin Maldonado. Maldonado was cut by the Clips so there’s a potential holdout situation brewing but we’re confident we can get him to report to camp eventually. And after a dozen game-winning squeeze bunt RBIs, we predict that some wise guy next November will propose a rule that says you can’t bring your backup catcher off the bench to pinch-hit and lay down a squeeze bunt.

Seventh round: OF Dairon Blanco. In 1982, Tim Raines stole 195 bases for the Paperclips, a record that stands to this day. We’re drafting Blanco to challenge that mark. And serve as a 10th outfielder. How’s he gonna do it? He’s a star stealer with 2-11 chances for a good lead. (That’s 97.2%). He has a 20 for his first number. On those 2.8% of occasions he fails to get a lead, he has a 16 for his second number. This is also the number he’s starting with to steal third. So unless you’ve got a pitcher-combo catcher in the negative range, even if he’s held at second you almost can’t stop him from stealing third (70%). And wait! “Now Blanco’s edging off third… there he goes!!!” South Grand Prairie used a light variation of this strategy in 2021 as Billy Hamilton stole 15 bases despite just 20 at-bats. He was an automatic good lead runner (2-12) and had 18 and 16 as his lead numbers. As a pinch-runner deluxe who steals two bases a game, Blanco will have Raines’ record by the end of July and be available to the highest bidder for their stretch run in exchange for some freakish next-year talent. He may not be much of a hitter, but he’s alright. He’s alright! He’s alright with me. Hey, hey, hey, hey!

Eighth round to 15th round: Will need several 200-inning pitchers, a starting third baseman, some help at first base and a DH upgrade.

Yow!

The draft of the unknown soldiers

So many unknowns about our March 10 partial retention draft in Phoenix to kick off the 45th season of the I-75 League.

Unlike many years when the No. 1 pick is fairly obvious, this year it’s not.

The pool of great this-year-cards-who-will-help-me-make-the-playoffs is thin.

The pool of first-year player cards is deep overall, but thin at the top.

Add to that the fact that it’s a little hard to forecast picks for the top three teams. You never know what Bismarck’s gonna do in any draft, this is only the second draft for Carpe Diem, and Applegate’s season is so hopeless that it needs help just about everywhere other than right field for 100 games.

Then there’s the speed factor. The change in MLB rules for 2023 has resulted in seemingly every player suddenly becoming a star stealer. What impact will that have on our typically bombs-away collective mentality?

These are the things we think about as we prepare to choose our soldiers and go to war for yet another season.

• Have you looked at starting pitching? Assessing available right-handed starters with six innings of endurance, I count exactly two guys available with a balanced card: Kodai Senga (who’s already 31) and Bobby Miller. Everyone else gets fairly well roasted from one side of the plate or the other. You might as well take your chances with lefties after that.
• Never heard of Kutter Crawford, Cole Ragans, Tyler Holton? Better get familiar with these unknowns. Don’t be surprised if they get snapped up in the first round or early second.
• That lefty-long-relief strategy pioneered by Boulder’s Framber Valdez in 2021 (212 innings, almost all in relief) and ridden to success in 2022 in Dyersville with Ranger Suarez when he went a ridiculous 22-3 for the Treblemakers? Hard to see that being utilized this year; Ragans is the best candidate with 96 innings, and Greendale has retained Matt Strahm, who’d be serviceable with 88, but the rest of the lefties with innings get hit pretty hard by righties.
• There is an abundance of good relief cards, but many of them are 1-inning pitchers and many of those have low inning totals for the season. With the 105% rule stripped out this year, managers risk falling short of their required 600 at-bats and 1500 innings pitched to comprise a constitutional roster.
• And again, the speed. Not only will stolen bases increase, but so will the frequency with which you’ll have to hold runners. That puts increasing value on pitchers’ hold factors and catchers’ throwing arms. And, on middle infielders’ fielding ratings, which will worsen on more X-rolls than before. What kind of value does that give to a card like Ezequiel Tovar, a 1e7 shortstop with 581 at-bats but only a .695 OPS? How about Patrick Bailey, a 1(-3) catcher with 326 at-bats but only hits lefties?
• Catcher overall will be a fascinating position to watch in the draft, as there’s only one good all-around catcher available with 300-plus at-bats in the person of Yainer Diaz at 3(-2), and there’s no less than three teams (Carpe Diem, Superior, South Grand Prairie) that have a complete void at catcher going into the draft. Bismarck might as well have a void, as its only backstop is the middling Yasmani Grandal, a 3(+3). Hmm. Is it too early to take Diaz at No. 1 overall? No. 2 overall? Doubtful he’ll still be around on the second pass.

Maybe these unknowns will achieve clarity in the five weeks between today and the draft, or maybe our 45th draft will feature more draft-day intrigue than most. Stay tuned!