Lava Flow for July

In July, the Volcanoes posted a good month on the field – going 15-5 despite a surprising series loss to the New New York Hypnotoads.  The Volcanoes swept the Southbound-leading SGP Warriors, and added 4-1 series victories against the Savannah Scorpions and Boulder Tree Huggers.  Combined with the July swoon (4-16) of the Bushwood Gophers, the Volcanoes opened up a 14-game lead in the Northbound division.  After 100 games the Volcanoes have a record of 66 wins and 34 losses, a pace three games ahead of the 2017 Volcanoes’ record of 63-37 at the 100-game mark.

The bigger news of July happened off the field for the Volcanoes, as they traded Mookie Betts, Carlos Rodon, Joakim Soria, Joc Pederson and Khris Davis to add Justin Turner, Charlie Blackmon, Rhys Hoskins, Michael Fulmer and Colby Rasmus.  It’s difficult to trade a 25-year-old outfielder on the way to an MVP season, but the players the Volcanoes picked up position the team nicely to make another title run in the last 60 games and then postseason of the 2018 season.

Looking at card values via runs created vs. righties and vs. lefties, the 2018 Volcanoes compare nicely to the 2017 Volcano team.  Looking at the offense:

 

2017 Volcanoes 2018 Volcanoes
vs Right vs Left vs Right vs Left
Votto 0.404 Votto 0.278 Bryant 0.325 Santana 0.271
Bryant 0.286 Broxton 0.252 Votto 0.419 Votto 0.418
Ortiz 0.457 Bryant 0.410 Turner 0.245 Turner 0.657
Sanchez 0.408 Flores 0.418 Blackmon 0.320 Blackmon 0.307
Cano 0.330 Ramos 0.339 Sanchez 0.240 Bryant 0.343
Betts 0.276 Ortiz 0.322 Cano 0.256 Lindor 0.234
Pederson 0.237 Cano 0.202 Hoskins 0.366 Marrero 0.266
Davis 0.201 Lindor 0.137 Lindor 0.153 Sanchez 0.243
Lindor 0.194 Suzuki 0.247 Taylor 0.242 Hoskins 0.457
       
Avg RC 0.310 Avg RC 0.289 Avg RC 0.285 Avg RC 0.355

 

The 2017 Volcanoes – led by a trio of 40 runs-created cards from Votto, Ortiz and Sanchez – have the edge, but the offense for the 2018 team was certainly bolstered by adding Blackmon and Hoskins.  With the addition of Turner’s .657 RC card vs. lefties, the 2018 Volcanoes hit lefties better than the 2017 team.  While the 2017 team met two lefty starters (Cole Hamels and Rich Hill) starting four out of the six World Series games, the 2018 team is not likely to see the same playoff parade of lefties.

Pitching-wise the 2018 Volcanoes have an edge on the 2017 team:

 

2017 Volcanoes 2018 Volcanoes
T vs L vs R T vs L vs R
Lester L 0.039 0.047 Santana R 0.044 0.071
Santana R 0.058 0.077 Cashner R 0.060 0.058
Lewis R 0.067 0.079 Fulmer R 0.069 0.039
Ross R 0.155 0.045 Hamels L 0.014 0.076
Triggs R 0.108 0.044 McCarthy R 0.061 0.082
       
Jansen R 0.014 0.000 Jansen R 0.043 0.000
Chapman L 0.000 0.006 Chapman L 0.013 0.046
Reed R 0.013 0.020 Neshek R 0.043 0.013
Dayton L 0.003 0.047 Claudio L 0.000 0.054
Smith L 0.069 0.041 Minor L 0.008 0.041
Ottavino R 0.081 0.003 Givens R 0.039 0.037
Broxton R 0.077 0.051 Gearrin R 0.039 0.041
Maurer R 0.035 0.090 Delgado R 0.035 0.103

 

The 2017 team used a strategy of JBGE (Just Barely Good Enough) starters backed up by elite bullpen cards.  Jon Lester was the team’s “ace” (with the quotation marks added because of his left-handed pitching status).  Lester was the only starting pitcher to pick up a win in the 12 postseason games of 2018.  Lester’s 16.2 IP in 4 starts (just over 4 IP per start) and his 5.40 era show how short his playoff leash was in 2017.  Jansen, Chapman and Reed were 5-1 in the 2017 postseason, pitching 34.1 of the team’s 108 postseason innings.  At the bottom end of the bullpen, Broxton (5.00 era) and Maurer (11.42 era) pitched 14 non-elite relief innings in the 2017 postseason.  Joe Ross made two starts in the 2017 postseason, and posted a 15.88 era.

The 2018 team has better starters, with three good righties – Santana, Cashner and Fulmer – at the top of the rotation.  Cole Hamels and Brandon McCarthy are better options at the #4 starter slot than either Joe Ross or Andrew Triggs.  The 2018 bullpen also features elite cards at the top of the bullpen – Jansen and Chapman return and are joined by Neshek.  The ability of the 2018 team to throw lefty innings should be a big advantage – as Chapman, Claudio and Minor provide the potential for 21 lefty relief IP in a seven-game series.  At the bottom of the bullpen Givens and Gearrin are a significant upgrade over Broxton and Maurer.

While Margaritaville is sad to see Mookie Betts go (and we’ll be even sadder once the 2019 season kicks off), we look forward to the possibility of another Northbound division championship, and hope for another deep playoff run and a return to the I-75 World Series.

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