Better predictor of I-75 success: Yahoo or Draftalyzer???

We won’t bury the lede here. Both did well.

The final 2016 Yahoo standings (which come with a big caveat — some teams were way better than others about keeping their rosters current and lineup slots filled than others — looked like this:

  1. Springfield. (Finished with league’s second-best record, 93 wins)
  2. Destin. (Tied for 6th playoff spot, lost play-in)
  3. Iowa. (Now Boulder, won West Division)
  4. Margaritaville (Finished with league’s best record)
  5. Michigan. (Now Tatooine, earned sixth playoff spot)
  6. Savannah. (Underperformed in W-L despite scoring and allowing same number of runs)

So of the top six finishers, Yahoo standings only misforecasted Destin, which lost a play-in game; and Savannah, which underperformed according to the predicted wins formula. And let us not forget that Savannah dealt away some key players, like beastly David Ortiz, who contributed to the 2016 Yahoo standings finish but did not contribute to the team’s 2017 Strat performance.

The remaining two teams that did make the playoffs finished 7th (Superior) and 9th (South Grand Prairie) in the Yahoo! standings. Ninth might seem low, but ninth was still the highest standings finish for any team in that South Division, which SGP won with a sub-.500 record.

Now looking at John McMillan’s Draftalyzer (see your March 8 in-box for the full details and analysis), this deadly-accurate predictor tool was off by no more than one standings position on 14 of the league’s 15 teams. It correctly forecast either four or five of the six playoff participants depending on how you interpret the South Division prediction order, which listed SGP on top but with fewer points than second-place Dyersville. And the other one it missed would have been Destin, which only fell short by virtue of that tiebreaker loss. It nailed the precise order of finish in the North Division and arguably did so in the South, if you look at the order and not Dyersville’s “current” value that was higher than SGP.

The only team that was more than one standings position off was Boulder, which won the West Division despite being evaluated as having the third-best current value in the West.

That’s a pretty deadly accurate analysis overall.

Next we’ll look at what the 2017 Yahoo standings tell us about the 2018 Strat league season.

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2 Responses

  1. I’ve thought the Yahoo league limited for the following reasons:
    (i) If you make a mid-season trade, it effects a half-season of Yahoo points, but you get to use the acquired player for a full-season of Strat.

    (ii) Some of the fantasy stats (stole bases, saves) are not similarly valued in producing Strat league wins and losses.

    (iii) Since we retain only 17/18 players, contributions from players 18/25 to Yahoo points are meaningless.

    Recalling that the “Draftalyzer” ratings were pre-draft, I think I placed the Warriors (386 “current” rating) ahead of the Treblemakers (388 “current” rating) based on their significantly higher future value, on the theory that would provide a greater base for trades to add value through the season.

    In terms of adding future value, the Tree Huggers did a great job on draft day (adding Rich Hill via trade with Tatooine), and through the season (adding Aaron Sanchez and Trevor Story at the deadline).

  2. I enjoyed this analysis immensely. Thank you, Gary (and Grid). BTW, I already have an offer for the #1 pick in 2018 that is worthy of consideration. Soooo tempting.

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