Volcanoes come out on top in first RenHart Projections

By Dave Renbarger

Watch out for Margaritaville this year.  Manager John McMillan’s Volcanoes are ready to erupt, featuring an outstanding lineup, tons of pitching and an airtight defense.  According to a less-than-scientific analysis of all 15 rosters conducted by two league managers two days after the draft in Kissimmee, the Volcanoes are the overwhelming favorite to win the I-75 Mail League title in 2013.

Other projected divisional winners are Savannah by a small margin over Hickory in the Southbound and Bushwood by an eyelash over Superior in the Westbound.

The three remaining playoff teams, according to the analysis conducted jointly by Savannah manager Steve Hart and Bushwood skipper Dave Renbarger, will be Hickory, Superior and Bismarck.

Three other teams — Wisconsin, Satellite Beach and SGP — are well within striking distance of the sixth-place Bombers and should be considered solid playoff contenders.

Full disclosure:  These rankings are admittedly somewhat subjective.  They are based more on general roster observations and less on empirical statistical data.

Our methodology:  We ranked all 15 rosters in six categories — lineup vs. righties, lineup vs. lefties, starting pitching, relief pitching, defense and speed — on a 1 to 5 scale.  Then we weighted the six categories in terms of overall importance thusly — lineup vs. righties 3x; lineup vs. lefties 1x; starting pitching 3x; relief pitching 1.5x; defense 1.5x and speed 0.5x.  Then we did the multiplication and additon to come up with the final numbers.

Here is the grid that details the rankings:

NORTH v RHP (x3) v LHP (x1) SP (x3) RP (x1.5) DEF (x1.5) SPD (x.5) Total
MARG (1) 4.5 (13.5) 4 (4) 4.5 (13.5) 4.5 (6.75) 5 (7.5) 4 (2) 47.25
BSK (6) 4 (12) 4 (4) 2.5 (7.5) 3.5 (5.25) 5 (7.5) 3 (1.5) 37.75
SGP (9) 4 (12) 5 (5) 2 (6) 3 (4.5) 3 (4.5) 3.5 (1.75) 33.75
APPL (10) 3 (9) 2 (2) 3 (9) 3.5 (5.25) 3.5 (5.25) 1.5 (.75) 31.25
ENG (t-12) 2 (6) 3.5 (3.5) 1 (3) 2 (3) 4.5 (6.75) 4 (2) 24.25
SOUTH v RHP (x3) v LHP (x1) SP (x3) RP (x1.5) DEF (x1.5) SPD (x.5) Total
SAV (2) 4 (12) 5 (5) 4.5 (13.5) 4 (6) 3.5 (5.25) 2.5 (1.25) 43
HICK (3) 5 (15) 1 (1) 4 (12) 3.5 (5.25) 4.5 (6.75) 2 (1) 41
WISC (7) 5 (15) 4 (4) 2.5 (7.5) 1.5 (2.25) 3 (4.5) 4 (2) 35.25
SATB (8) 3 (9) 2.5 (2.5) 3 (9) 4.5 (6.75) 3.5 (5.25) 3 (1.5) 34
SPR (11) 1.5 (4.5) 4 (4) 5 (15) 2 (3) 2(3) 3 (1.5) 31
WEST v RHP (x3) v LHP (x1) SP (x3) RP (x1.5) DEF (x1.5) SPD (x.5) Total
BUSH (4) 5 (15) 4.5 (4.5) 2.5 (7.5) 4 (6) 3 (4.5) 4.5 (2.25) 39.75
SUP (5) 4 (12) 4.5 (4.5) 4 (12) 3 (4.5) 3 (4.5) 3 (1.5) 39
MICH (t-12) 1.5 (4.5) 2 (2) 2 (6) 2 (3) 4.5 (6.75) 4 (2) 24.25
IOWA (14) 3 (9) 2 (2) 1.5 (4.5) 1 (1.5) 2.5 (3.75) 2 (1) 21.75
CHAT (15) 1 (3) 3.5 (3.5) 1 (3) 1 (1.5) 3 (4.5) 1.5 (.75) 16.25
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3 Responses

  1. The season is now over. How’d Dave and I do?

  2. Interesting analysis gents. IMHO you are seriously undervaluing the Cyclones offense, especially vs LH starters. My assessment shows that they are league average offense vs. RHP (3 in these terms) and well above average vs. LHP (at least a 4) 9 wins in the books against some top-flight competition already this month speaks to how potent an offense they put forth. Do not underestimate the power of Trout!

    • Why isn’t home runs a catagory!
      The cyclones would be a 6 on a scale of 1-5 in that catagory!
      FEAR THE WILLINGHAMMER!

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