One draft down, one mock draft to go

Forecasting the first round of the 2012 draft is especially challenging, and not just because a whopping 19 players will be chosen. For one thing, we don’t know which expansion teams will be slotted in which order. And, having not conducted the waiver draft yet, we don’t know what their specific needs will be.

However, we can guess that they are more likely to go for young prospects than veteran players to try to win in 2012, so that is one of our premises as we walk out on the ledge with this month’s version of our Mock Draft. Note that the order below is unofficial. Our last attempt at the mock draft rankings is here.

1. Michael Pineda, SP, Seattle (expansion team A). Previous Rank: 2. Pineda or Mike Trout remains a tossup, but when in doubt, pitching is more precious than offense, and Pineda is not only a prized prospect at age 22, he has one of the best, if not the best, available starting pitcher cards. Pineda struck out 173 in 171 innings and had a 1.10 WHIP.

2. Mike Trout, OF, L.A. Angels (Springfield) PR: 2. Considered the best prospect in baseball outside Bryce Harper, the Isotopes may not really need him, and his card may not even be useable, but you don’t pass up the chance at a player like this. Only hit .220 and slugged .390, but he’s also only 20 years old.

3. Doug Fister, P, Detroit (Expansion Team B) PR: Not ranked. Fister finished very strong as the Tigers pulled away in the AL Central, and his overall stats compare favorably to Pineda. He pitched 46 more innings than Pineda and gave up 7 fewer homers; his overall WHIP of 1.06 is slightly better than Pineda’s 1.10. But he is 27, and a good fit for a team hoping to compete in 2012, or for an expansion team looking to dangle him as trade bait.  A team playing for the future might look elsewhere, since he could be a one-year aberration. Also, if Michigan happens to be in this slot, Ken Crawford’s team could snag Alex Avila instead, as Kurt Suzuki isn’t going to scare anyone with his offense. 

4. Alex Avila, C, Detroit (Savannah) PR: 16. Not only is there no other everday catcher available, but Avila, at age 24, had a great year, hitting .295, slugging .506, and boasting an on-base-plus-slugging (OBS) against righties of .939, best figure among available regulars eligible for the draft. Savannah needs a catcher after losing Geovanny Soto in the expansion draft.

5. Jesus Montero, C, N.Y. Yankees (expansion Team C) PR: Not ranked. With 61 at-bats, he should get a card. With a .328-.406-.590 line, it should be a wicked one. An expansion team that didn’t get Wilson Ramos or Yadier Molina would be wise to snap up Montero; even if he becomes a DH instead of a catcher, the 22-year-old’s bat is supposed to be profound.

6. Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto (Bismarck, 71 wins) PR: Not ranked. The Bombers have a bunch of superstars coming off of subpar years who are good candidates to rebound in 2012 and set the Bombers up nicely for 2013. Even though they bring back Placido Polanco, they can groom the Blue Jays’ 21-year-old prospect, who batted .293 and slugged .580, including a wicked 1.022 OBS against righties in 150 overall at-bats. His righty bat would fit in nicely, particularly in a lineup featuring lefties Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz and Carl Crawford.

7. Jhonny Peralta, SS, Detroit (expansion Team D) PR: 7. If Satellite Beach or Iowa is sitting in this slot, that means they probably need a starting shortstop, since they didn’t get Starlin Castro or J.J. Hardy when the Demo Dogs were dispersed, and they likely didn’t get any everyday shortstop out of the expansion draft. Peralta, at age 29, hit .299 with an .824 OPS in 523 at-bats.

8. Yonder Alonso, 1B-OF, Cincinnati (South Grand Prairie) PR: 5. The Warriors appear to be a year or two away from being a championship threat, so they could look to add this 24-year-old slugger who mashed his way to a .330-.398-.545 line in 88 at-bats. If he finds playing time with the Reds or elsewhere, he’s projected to be a major offensive force in the league for years to come.

9. Craig Kimbrell, RP, Atlanta (Chatfield) PR: 10. The Chimeras have a strong team returning and even managed to keep closer Drew Storen. But Kimbrell is better. How about 127 strikeouts in 77 innings? How about a 1.04 WHIP? How about allowing a .189 slugging average to lefties and .273 slugging average to righties? Most pitchers would take those for their opponents’ batting averages.

10. Brendan McCarthy, SP, Oakland (Applegate) PR: Not ranked. The Clips should have a solid lineup in place and need to shore up their pitching. McCarthy would not be a glamorous pick, but a needed one, as the rotation likely would stand at 3 1/2 useable pitchers coming out of the expansion draft. McCarthy sported a 1.13 WHIP and hurled 170 innings, keeping his opponents’ OPS under .700 against both lefties and righties.

11. Alex Gordon, OF, Kansas City (Hickory) PR: 13. It would be poetic justice for the Nuts to land the player whom they kept on their roster through all of his lean years, before jettisoning him just when he blossomed. Gordon is the best unlimited player in the draft and to be able to land him with the 11th pick would be a coup for the Nuts. After moving from 3B to LF, Gordon racked up 20 outfield assists. He also hit .303 with 45 doubles, 23 homers and 17 steals.

12. Kyle Lohse, SP, St. Louis (Margaritaville) PR: 9. Nobody wants Kyle Lohse, I get it. But if you’re a contender and still need a No. 3, 4 or 5 pitcher, who’s better? Lohse may be 32 but he had a 1.17 WHIP in 188 innings, and an opponents’ batting average of .249. He also allowed only one stolen base all year.

13. Kenley Jansen, RP, L.A. Dodgers (Wisconsin) PR: Not ranked. Jansen is a strikeout machine, blowing away 96 hitters in 53 innings and posting a 1.04 WHIP. He had a sub-.500 OPS against both lefties and righties and is only 24.

14. Philip Humber, SP, Chicago White Sox (Bushwood) PR: 17. The Gophers have a solid lineup returning but only two dependable starting pitchers. Unless they want to punt on 2012, they’ll need to shore up their starting pitching staff, and Humber is a good fit. At age 28 he had his finest season, posting a 1.18 WHIP in 163 innings. Can be roughed up a bit by lefties, but ya takes what ya can get at the 14th pick. A former first-round pick by the New York Mets.

15. Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle (Superior) PR: 3. The Titans may have only protected three pitchers among their original 10, but they have enough pitching depth to absorb the loss of pitchers to expansion and still be able to stockpile enough so that that area won’t be a glaring need. Instead, Ackley, projected to be a high on-base second baseman, is a good fit for Superior, after hitting .273-.348-.417 in 333 at-bats while making just six errors. Should blossom into a top player for Superior for years to come.

16. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City (expansion Team D). PR: Not ranked. Plenty of good, young first basemen out there, but Hosmer gets a slight edge for his youth (age 22), his wheels (11 stolen bases) and his ability to be a factor in 2012 (.886 OBS vs. righties).

17. Aroldis Chapman, P, Cincinnati (expansion Team C). PR: 6. Chapman could get a look as a starter, which makes him more valuable than comparable relief options, but even though he walked a few righties, he blows away lefties and would offer 50 innings of LOOGY work or more.

18. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta (expansion Team B) PR: 12. Freeman’s attraction is that he’ll be unlimited, can play against both lefties and righties, is only 22, and made just six errors. He hit .282 with 32 doubles and 21 homers.

19. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City (expansion Team A) PR: 19. Struggled in his debut, especially against lefties, but he’s respectable vs. righties. More importantly, he was the 2007 No. 2 overall pick, and was ranked as the No. 7 top prospect in last year’s Baseball Prospectus.

Dropped out: No. 4 Josh Tomlin, No. 8 Todd  Helton, No. 11 Antonio Bastardo, No. 14 Desmond Jennings, No. 15 Fernando Salas, No. 18 Josh Collmenter.

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